So How Is Odyssey Doing?

Back in February I did a post in which I used Eve Offline's charts to evaluate if the Retribution expansion was doing well or not based on Peak Current Users numbers after two months in. I wrote: 

Based on the weekly averages of the peak logged in accounts, Eve has not been as busy since the launch and heydays of Incursions in early 2011. I feel that this is primarily attributed to the improvements in ship balancing done by Team Game of Drones which has allowed a rebirth of cheaper ship fleet doctrines that can compete better with higher end battlecruiser, Tech II cruiser, and Tech III cruiser setups. Coupled with the excitement of the new features like bounty hunting and new ships and UI enhancements, things look good for Eve.. right now.
Next summer's patch is crucial.

So how does Odyssey look in comparison?

 A large drop off in the averages that pretty much has negated all the gains that Retribution had made. This is a vast disappointment and indicative that the "features" in Odyssey were lacking in "awesomeness" to draw the players in and keep them around. And the features that were added were mainly iterations on existing content and still need more work, like the new exploration hacking minigame, for example, could use more depth and function.

Personally I thought Odyssey was a decent expansion but we appear to want a combination of iteration on existing features and large new content expansions. Odyssey 1.1 was a good step, but more is needed. The malaise in null sec especially needs to be addressed somehow too.

So How Is Retribution Doing?

EDIT: I've been informed in the comments that the new concurrent users numbers since DUST 514 players were introduced on Tranquility include the DUST 514 players, thus skewing any counts upwards. Without accurate DUST player counts to subtract from the numbers below, it is near impossible to get an accurate picture of how Eve is doing in the Retribution era. We will however, be able to see going forward how Eve+DUST are doing together.

NEW EDIT UPDATE: The PCU numbers do NOT include DUSTies as confirmed by CCP Fozzie on twitter. See here for details.

One of the best indicators of the health of an MMO is the concurrent user numbers, specifically the peak value of people logged in each day. More than subscriptions do, these numbers indicate the actually number of people playing the game, since people can stop playing yet their subscriptions have not run out, or they keep paying for a subscription but log in once a month for skill queue updates.

So, how is Eve doing? Has Retribution lived up to the hype of getting people to log in more?

One of my favourite sites to visit for this type of metric is EVE-Offline :: EVE-Online Status Monitor.

Its great, you can hover over any point on the line graphs and see the date and values. The bottom graph is the most instructive with each point representing the weekly average over Eve's entire existence. Let's take a closer look, shall we? I'll highlight some important dates for you.

Based on the weekly averages of the peak logged in accounts, Eve has not been as busy since the launch and heydays of Incursions in early 2011. I feel that this is primarily attributed to the improvements in ship balancing done by Team Game of Drones which has allowed a rebirth of cheaper ship fleet doctrines that can compete better with higher end battlecruiser, Tech II cruiser, and Tech III cruiser setups. Coupled with the excitement of the new features like bounty hunting and new ships and UI enhancements, things look good for Eve.. right now.

Next summer's patch is crucial.

Thoughts on the Revised Combat Battlecruisers

So Retribution 1.1 is coming out in a week or so and I figured I would give my impressions of the upcoming battlecruiser changes as they stand as of Jan 23rd. I will be taking into account the proposed armour tanking changes as discussed here, including the new Ancillary Armour Repairer.


Prophecy:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
5% bonus to all Armor Resistances
10% bonus to drone damage and hitpoints
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 5 H (-2), 4 M (+1), 7 L (+1), 4 turrets (-2), 4 Launchers (+3)
Fittings: 1100 PWG (-200), 415 CPU (+75)
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 3000(-419) / 5500(+617) / 4000(-395)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 2850(+37.5) / 750s / 3.8 (+0.05)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 150 / 0.704 / 12900000 (-600,000) / 8.5s (-0.4)
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 75 (+50) / 225 (+200)
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 50km / 210 / 6
Sensor strength: 17 Radar (+1)
Signature radius: 270 (+5)
Cargo capacity: 400 (+50)

This is a radical change and supports the "Drones are Amarr's Second Weapon System" theory a bit more than the "Missiles are Amarr's Second Weapon System" theory with the damage bonus being for drones. With the large drone bay and big tanking ability, expect this ship to be range fit and buffer tanked to the hilt and capable of engaging small sized and smaller targets with relative ease.

Harbinger:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
10% bonus to Medium Energy Turret Damage
10% bonus Medium Energy Turret capacitor use
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 7 H (-1), 4 M, 6 L, 6 turrets (-1)
Fittings: 1425 PWG (-75), 375 CPU
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 3000(-516) / 5000(-469) / 4500(-188)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 3125 / 822s(+72s) / 3.8 (-0.366)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 150 / 0.69 (-0.014) / 13800000 (+300,000) / 8.9s
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 50 / 75 (+25)
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 55km (+5) / 210 / 6
Sensor strength: 17 Radar (+1)
Signature radius: 270 (+5)
Cargo capacity: 375 (+25)

I've heard the Harbinger described as the "red headed stepchild" of the Amarr battlecruisers. Not enough tank to compete with the Prophecy, too slow and short ranged to compete with the Oracle (not to mention damage is lower). However, its been hinted at that a change (read: nerf) for the Attack Battlecruisers to limit their ability to engage smaller targets as well is in the works so that sniping ranged battlecruisers and cruisers with medium weapons have a role to fill, so if that is true then the Harbinger, like the Ferox, may find a niche to live in.

Ferox:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
5% bonus to all Shield Resistances
10% bonus to Medium Hybrid Turret optimal range
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 8 H (+1), 5 M, 4 L, 7 turrets (+1)
Fittings: 1250 PWG (+175), 510 CPU (+35)
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 5000(+117) / 3500(+81) / 4000(+94)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 2750(+250) / 723s(+56.33s) / 3.8 (+0.05)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 140 / 0.66(+0.06) / 13250000 (-760,000) / 8.2s (+0.3)
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 25 / 25
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 65km (+5)/ 195 / 8
Sensor strength: 19 Gravimetric
Signature radius: 295 (+10)
Cargo capacity: 475 (+130)

Despite my misgivings of the Ferox's optimal range bonus, this iteration is a huge win for the hull. A new turret and powergrid/CPU to fit it, still has auxiliary high slot, modest boost to hit points and targeting range, and huge boost to cargo space for charges to use in an Ancillary Shield Booster. With blasters and null ammo it can fight at the edges of disruptor range making it handy for dealing with kiting tacklers but still suffers from the lack of tracking against close in tacklers.

Drake:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
5% bonus to all Shield Resistances
10% bonus to heavy and heavy assault missile kinetic damage
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 7 H (-1), 6 M, 4 L , 6 Launchers (-1)
Fittings: 800 PWG (-50), 500 CPU (-25)
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 5250(-219) / 3250(-658) / 3750(-156)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 2500(-312.5) / 658s(-92s) / 3.8 (+0.05)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 140 / 0.64(+0.012) / 14810000 (+800,000) / 8.9s (+0.7)
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 25 / 25
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 60km / 195 / 8
Sensor strength: 19 Gravimetric
Signature radius: 295 (+10)
Cargo capacity: 450 (+105)

Originally the Drake was going to keep its 7 launchers and 5%  bonus to kinetic missiles but its been changes to 6 launchers with 10% bonus. The upshot is that it does more damage with kinetic missiles (~ 0.25 more launchers worth) but less damage with non-kinetic weaponry (1.0 launcher less). Coupled with the hit point reductions and mass addition, this is a nerf. The PODLA Drake is dead. But overall is the Drake still a good ship? It will still shield buffer tank like a boss and it gets a bit of powergrid and CPU boost (the removed launcher took up more than the 50 MW and 25 tfs that were removed).

Brutix:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
10% bonus to Medium Hybrid Turret damage
7.5% bonus to Armor Repairer effectiveness
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 7 H, 4 M, 6 L (+1), 6 turrets (-1)
Fittings: 1125 PWG (-25), 435 CPU (+10)
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 3500(-406) / 4500(+135) / 4750(-133)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 3000(+656.25) / 789s(+164s) / 3.8 (+0.05)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 155 / 0.704(+0.0352) / 12500000 (-750,000) / 8.2s (-0.1)
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 50 / 50
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 55km / 200 / 7
Sensor strength: 18 Magnetometric
Signature radius: 305 (+5)
Cargo capacity: 475 (+75)

Hail to the new king of combat battlecruisers. Doubled the damage bonus from 5% to 10% but one less turret meaning its effective turret count goes from 8.75 to 9, plus an extra low, but the big change is the 750k weight loss which will make it very fast and agile so it will be able to apply its blaster damage. The new Ancillary Armour Repairer and extra low might give pilots a strong enough local tank to brawl effectively in this ship as well as keeping up with the targets. Expect to see this vessel charging towards your lines in a system near you soon.

Myrmidon:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
7.5% bonus to Armor Repairer effectiveness
10% bonus to drone damage and hitpoints
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 5 H (-1), 5 M, 6 L, 5 turrets (-1)
Fittings: 1050 PWG (-125), 400 CPU
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 3500(-406) / 4500(-188) / 4750(+453)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 2850(+37.5) / 750s(+108.75s) / 3.8 (+0.05)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 145 / 0.704 / 13100000 / 8.6s (-0.1)
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 100 (+25) / 200 (+50)
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 55km / 200 / 7
Sensor strength: 18 Magnetometric
Signature radius: 305 (+5)
Cargo capacity: 400

Kind of a neutral change on this one. One less turret but more drone firepower (with one Hobgoblin replaced by an Ogre) and more drone bay for flexibility. It will be a flexible ship and still have a niche in solo work with dual or tri reps (including the new AAR), but won't outshine the Brutix.

Cyclone:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
5% bonus to Heavy Missile and Heavy Assault Missile rate of fire
7.5% bonus to shield boosting amount
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 7 H (-1), 5 M, 5 L (+1), 2 turrets, 5 Launchers
Fittings: 1100 PWG (-110), 525 CPU (+100)
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 5000(+605) / 3750(-156) / 3750(+331)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 2850(+662.5) / 750s(+166.67s) / 3.8 (+0.05)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 165 / 0.704 / 12500000 / 8.2s
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 50 (+10) / 50 (+10)
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 45km / 220 / 6
Sensor strength: 17 Ladar (+1)
Signature radius: 250 (+10)
Cargo capacity: 450 (-25)

A new missile ship for the Minmatar, this vessel acts as a counterpoint to the Drake. Faster with less mass, it will be able to move around the field better than the Drake and since its weapon bonus is for any missile damage type, it has more flexibility against targets that need EM, Explosive, or Thermal damage. Sure, it has one less turret but it can field five medium drones instead of the five lights the Drake has. The bonus to shield boosting almost ensures it will be fit with and ASB for PvP, and two utility highs could see it become the new Hurricane as a result.

Hurricane:
Battlecruiser skill bonuses:
5% bonus to Medium Projectile Turret damage
5% bonus to Medium Projectile Turret rate of fire
Fixed Bonus:
Can fit Warfare Link modules
Slot layout: 7 H (-1), 4 M, 6 L, 6 turrets, 3 Launchers
Fittings: 1125 PWG, 400 CPU
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 4250(-47) / 4500(-188) / 3500(-16)
Capacitor (amount / recharge rate / average cap per second): 2250(-562.5) / 592s(-158s) / 3.8 (+0.05)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 165 / 0.704 / 12800000 (+300,000) / 8.4s (+0.2)
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 30 / 30
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 50km (+5) / 220 / 6
Sensor strength: 16 Ladar
Signature radius: 250 (+10)
Cargo capacity: 425 (-50)

Poor Hurricane, nerfed once again. No more dual neutralizers of any size, more mass, less capacitor, fewer hitpoints. Its damage profile did not get nerfed so it might be able to find a role between the Tornado and Cyclone as the short ranged brawler, but it will never be as feared as it was before.

Overall:

Brutix, Ferox, Prophecy, Cyclone = Buy

Myrmidon, Hurricane = Hold

Drake, Harbinger = Sell. 

I'm Infamous!

Last night I was out roaming and jumped into Aeschee and saw a pod sitting there, on the gate. Neutral to me. Well, I'm in a Ferox which can take a few blows from the sentry guns so I figured, what the hell.

Now, I'm in a slow assed blaster Ferox with scram and the pod is 26 km from me, It takes me a dog's age to lock and even get in scram range of the guy. He must have been stupid or AFK, because he did not move a meter.

POP!

Basic implants, nothing to write home about to mother.

A few minutes later I get an evemail.

I'm infamous!

Yes, the pod I popped determined I needed a bounty on me. Fifty million ISK. I feel so special! I was getting jealous of all the people with bounties while I had none, but now I do and I actually earned mine.

I feel so wanted...

Retribution - Evaluation

I admit that my enthusiasm for Retribution was low this fall. The biggest interest for me was the new destroyers and revamped cruisers but the rest just felt... meh. Crimewatch? I'm in low sec in a warzone, not really applicable. Bounty Hunting? I've always felt it was impossible to do without being exploitable so I was doubtful CCP could pull it off.

But as the days turned over and October became November, more small features were announced that intrigued me and raised my interest level. UI changes with visible timers, tracking camera, better inventory control, faction warfare changes, etc etc etc. As more information came forth my anticipation grew and I was eager to see what Eve would be like with Retribution.

So, now its been a few days, we can evaluate the expansion in whole and give my impressions.

Summary: Overall a better expansion than Inferno but just below Crucible. Two thumbs up.

Retribution may lack the "jesus feature" to grab player's attentions from afar, but a lot of features in this expansion represent a sea change that should not be underestimated.

Bounties

Perhaps the feature with the broadest implications that I'm only grasping now is the Bounties and Bounty Hunting. I'll take my hat off to CCP for this one; I did not think a good feature could be done. But the idea of partial payouts for ship kills based on the ship's estimated cost is a masterstroke and very hard (if not near impossible) to manipulate. The result is that placing bounties is not a waste of ISK and actually may end up causing players to be hunted when they might otherwise have been ignored.

But the largest part of Bounties that will cause ripples and aftershocks for months if not years is that (1) you can put a bounty on anyone regardless of sec status and (2) you can place bounties on corporation and alliances. It was only after Retribution landed that I stopped and thought about that. And when I did my reaction was HOLY SHIT.

Consider you are a fabulously wealthy alliance with wallets in the hundreds of trillions. You want to go to war with another alliance. To provide more incentive for your line members to log in and fleet up, you place a few trillion in bounties on the enemy alliance. Now every enemy kill pays ISK to your line members who are participating in fleets. In addition, it pays your allies who come out to help you, and other third parties just to rain on the parade.Win-win.

Another scenario: you are a rich industrialist and getting hounded by a bunch of pirates. You want to hire a small new merc corp to fight back but want to make sure you get your money's worth? Pay the mercs a small fee to come fight but put the rest of the reward as a big bounty on the pirate corp (or individual pirates in case you think they might corp hop). The mercs get paid for killing the enemy ships and are rewarded for the bigger kills. Win-win.

Or let's say someone is being a jerk on tweetfleet. Bounty. Forum scum? Bounty. Cheap PvP tactics? BOUNTY! MUHAHAHAHAH!!

Sorry, lost it there for a moment.

It will be many months before we see what the norm for bounties will be, but I will tip my hat to CCP and say that this has vast potential to change a lot of game and social dynamics, one of the most important being that PvPer's have potential to get paid for PvPing, above and beyond the loot. Win-win.

Crimewatch

Like I said earlier, I live in low sec and a lot of these changes bear very little on my day to day existence. That being said, the new visible timers with tooltips in the top left corner are long overdue. The removal of neutral remote reppers that you could not engage were a huge hole to fill in high sec and I heartily approve. Overall people seem to be liking the system so I think I'll go along with that.

New and Improved Ships

I've gone on a lot on this blog about what I think of the tiericide (summary: its a good thing) and the new Destroyers seem balanced overall in my opinion. I applaude the work CCP has done in this area and I encourage them to continue. The revamped ships have made the game feel new and fresh in low sec and that really has sparked a lot of enthusiasm all over.

UI Changes

For something so late in the announcements, it has had the most raving. My only quibble is that the target's hitpoints pixels are a titch small and thus can make telling at a glance the shield/armour/structure balance, but that might be something that I get used to over time. The look is brilliant and the rest are too. Hint icons to tell what is in targeting range? Better damage notifications? More toop tip on modules? Improved inventory control? Easier to buy bulk from loyalty store? And more? Win-win-win.

Faction Warfare Iteration

The jury is going to be out a while to see if the plex changes help encourage more PvP and if the previous patch changes to loyalty point earning can find a balance between being rewarding and being too profitable. So far I'm encouraged that fleets are still going out and fighting each other so we'll keep an eye on things.

Conclusion

While not reaching the heady heights of Apocrypha, I would rate this expansion in the top half of all Eve expansions, perhaps even in the top 25%. Good work CCP.

Happy Retribution Eve!

Skills for the expansion day blues:

Kirith Kodachi: Drone Navigation V, 3.5 days
(I was embarrassed to discover Kirith's basic drone skills were only at IV.)

Korneilia: Drone Sharpshooting V, 3.3 days

Selia Canathius: Capital Energy Emission Systems V, 26 days
(At this point, I think she's better at piloting the Wyvern than Kirith!)

Also, saw the trailer. I like it but I miss the days when all footage was ingame only footage. Oh well.

Most Anticipated Retribution Feature

There is a lot coming in Retribution (still. worst. name. ever.) and I decided to ask myself what I am most looking forward to in the expansion coming out on December 4th.

I'm pretty neutral on the ship changes. I approve of them and I think overall they have been great, and I'm looking forward to what the new rebalanced cruisers can do (still love the Caracal even after all these years) but I'm not excited about them. I'll be more excited when Tech 2 cruisers are redone. I'm curious about trying out the new destroyers, but not excited. I'll probably try out the Gallente one, the Algos.

Crimewatch and Bounty Hunting changes similarly don't hold a lot of interest for me. I live in low sec, all non-purple/blue pilots are considered hostile, and the rules governing engagement and de-aggressing are relevant but not exciting.

No, what I'm most excited about is the HUD changes and the new visible timers are are coming as part of crimewatch. And the new camera option for keeping target on screen.

NICE

I don't know why, but improvements to the GUI always leave me a little giddy, as if I'm playing a new game. To be fair, Eve's GUI development was stunted for so long that any improvement feels like a huge one. When the small change of toggling overheating via shift+click came in I was ecstatic with joy for a week.

The new visible timers will be a big boon too. The session timer has saved frustration a lot over the years since it was implemented, and I can see the aggression timers saving my bacon in the future.

Just 19 more days.

You May Be Correct, But Not Necessarily Right

So as part of a week of rants, Ripard Teg bemoaned the rise of the Retribution Scythe as a "replacement" for the Tech II Scimitar:

Problem is, the Scythe is not an attractive alternative. It's a replacement. It turns all that time training the actual Logistics skill into wasted time and is going to put 75 million SP characters into T1 cruisers.

This statement stems from the initial numbers of the new Tech I Scythe support cruiser bonuses:

Scythe:
Cruiser skill bonuses:
-> 15% bonus to Shield Transporter boost amount
-> 5% reduction in Shield Transporter cap useRole Bonus:
-> 1000% bonus to the range of Shield Transporters
-> 100% bonus to Logistic Drone (both armor and shield) rep amount

Meanwhile, the Tech II Scimitar Logistic Cruiser has the following bonuses:

Minmatar Cruiser Skill Bonus:
-> 150% bonus to Tracking Link and Shield Transport range
-> 20% bonus to Shield Maintenance Bot transport amount per levelLogistics Skill Bonus:
-> 10% bonus to Tracking Link efficiency
-> 15% reduction in Shield Transport capacitor use per levelRole Bonus:
-> -50% CPU need for Shield Transporters

So for the relevant skills all at level V, we see that the Scythe has 75% bonus to shield transporter amount compared to none for the Scimitar and a 1000% bonus to range compared to 750% bonus for the Tech II ship. In favour to the Scimitar, it has a 75% reductions in cap use compared to only 25% for the Scythe.

So Ripard is correct: the Scythe will out range and out repair the Scimitar by a huge margin. I'm not as inclined to dismiss the tanking and maneuverability of the Scimitar over the Scythe, but I recognize that being able to repair from 90km away larger amount will make the Scythe a strong choice for logistic support in battle.

But I disagree that Logistics skill training is a wasted effort in the long term.

CCP's tiericide started with frigates and has accelerate into destroyers and cruisers for the Retribution patch. Its not inconceivable that the battlecruisers and battleships will be rebalanced in Retribution 1.1, 1.2, and/or 1.3. If their acceleration on balancing continues, we may even see the Tech II frigates addressed before the summer patch. Regardless, I'm willing to bet that the Scimitar and other Logistics ships will come under the microscope in the summer expansion or soon thereafter in a 1.x release. And when these ships are looked at, there is a strong possibility that they will receive similar bonus changes to make them a valid alternative over the Scythe (and I'm not sure they won't be already due to tech II qualities like speed and tank).

In other words, the Scythe and brethren *may* dominate the logistics landscape for 6 months, 8 tops. Then we'll be back to saying its a valid alternative to the more expensive but better performing tech II version.

The Game Has Changed

Sometime in 2007, Somewhere in Placid -

Young pilot Kirith Kodachi and friends in a pirate corp hunt from system to system, checking the belts for targets of opportunities. Most systems are deserted but occasionally prey can spotted in local chat and the wolfpack shotguns the belts, each pilot hoping to be the one to get the tackle.

The fleet might dip into Syndicate, maybe even live out of an NPC station for a while, scouring the belts for NPCs to kill for ISK and target to shoot for fun. Parts of this region are barren quiet wastelands with the occasional alliance living in a pocket here and there.

Elsewhere in null sec, alliances send out fleets of up to 100 pilots to protect the handful of POS tower anchoring pilots as they try to gain dominance of the moons of strategic systems, with one or maybe two titans waiting in the wings to Doomsday the enemy fleet at a strategic gate.

* * * * *

Late 2012, Somewhere in Essence -

Experienced pilot Kirith Kodachi joins up with an open fleet of militia members that begins the move from Heydieles up to Nemmemalia to engage a Caldari militia fleet spotted recently. Some systems are empty but plex farmers can be found in almost every system, racking up the Loyalty Points for the next cash out. The fleet sends scouts into the plexes looking for slow enemy warp outs. Belts are empty.

In Syndicate Rote Kapellle has declared its time for a purge of all the corporations and alliances living there and engaging in massively risk averse PvP.

In null sec massive coalitions smash against each other with each side having multiple fleets of hundreds of pilots, with yet another fleet of supercarriers and Titans waiting in the wings, fighting over Technitium moons for massive profits to fund their ship replacement programs.

* * * *

The game has changed a lot in 6 years. The rate of change has accelerated recently with Crucible and Inferno expansions: new ship classes, refurbished ship classes, new mechanics, new income sources. Couple that with the increasingly top heavy population demographics of rich players and alliances, and you have a completely different game than when I started.

And the change will continue to roll in.

The death knell of small gang PvP rang 9 years ago when the game design was set in stone with no limits on number of people in any area at one time. We are merely seeing the design decision's impact play out now. That's not to say you can't jump into a ship with one or two buddies and go off and find a "gud fite", but it will increasingly be the exception rather than the rule.

Ironically, although Faction Warfare has decimated belt ratting and mining in low sec, it has provided a lot more opportunity for small fights than anywhere in the game right now due to its plexes and concentrated warzones and I hope the Retribution (ugh) changes do not negate that property.

The only constant is change.

Back to the Crystal Ball

Retribution (ugh) is coming this winter and it has a lot of changes that will impact a lot of areas of the game. In particular, I'm going to look at Faction Warfare since that is where I have been for a few months now (and loving it) and I can speak fairly reliably to the estimated impact.

Prediction #1 - Militia numbers will drop significantly as alts created to take advantage of broken mechanics leave.

The basis for this prediction is easy: currently there are a large number of alts in various militias who do nothing but farm loyalty points to cash out when there is a push for warzone control tier 4 or 5, making billions of ISK with a character sometimes only weeks old. With changes to faction warfare including lower LP payouts for low tier control and smarter AI in the plex NPCs, these alts will no longer be able to farm ridiculous amounts of ISK.

At first this appears to be a win as these alts are not setup to fight and run at the first sign of trouble anyways,  but this does mean fewer travelling targets overall for the PvPers of the militia to hunt, and there is a chance that as players draw their alts out of FW for greener pastures, they may draw their mains out as well.

Whether or not numbers drop enough to affect quality and frequency of PvP in faction warfare area remains to be seen.

Prediction #2 - FW Cyno Jammers will not see a lot of use for faction warfare operations.

First off, the fact they can only be deployed in systems with level 5 upgrade means that you will be lucky to have more than one or two systems you can use them in (except maybe in a weird scenario where one militia is totally dominating another to the point of absurdity). Secondly, they have to be deployed at the IHUB and have very few hitpoint and no POS to protect them. So you won't set one up and forget about it, you will need to actively defend it.

So what's the most likely FW use case? Enemy is harassing or all out assaulting something in a friendly level 5 system so the defenders setup the cyno jammer and then undock the carriers/dreads to chase the hostiles off. The enemy does not come back because they can't counter-drop their capitals. Sure, there might be some fights on the cyno jammer itself but as soon the capitals are on field they will have a hard time knocking out that cyno jammer with just conventional ships, and even if they do, they don't open it up to just their own fleet, but rather any watching on alert null sec alliances are free to bomb the party too now.

However, I can see nullsec alliances taking advantage of this mechanic more often. Get an alt in a militia, give them a few FW cyno jammers, and you have defensible systems you can operate in low sec for logistics and training with no threat from any other capital fleets other than whats in system with you.

Or pirate corps using and alt to create the ultimate gate camp with carrier support and no threat of hot drops.

But helping FW corps have their own capital battles? That I don't see happening.

Prediction #3 - Faction will have one to three fortified capital systems, and the rest will be no man's land.

This already happens now. Gallente militia base out of Heydieles, Nennemaila, and Vlilirier. Caldari in Tama and I think Rakapas recently. And so on. But with the changes to FW in Retribution the effect will be even more pronounced as miltias are encouraged to develop fewer systems and are rewarded for the defense.

I don't think this is a necessarily bad thing, but it is interesting and promises to be worth watching in the new year.

Prediction #4 - More and More Ship Types will be seen in space.

Faction warfare is unique in that it requires pilots in different ship types to enter certain complexes. This means you see a lot of tech I ships you don't see in null sec and high sec. But as tiercide continues and ships are balanced overall with respect to each other, pilots will have more options for taking different ships out. We already see this with the rebalanced frigates that have been released. Hell, two nights ago I engaged three Condors for fuck's sake! That is more Condors than I have seen in space in 5 years!

As the new Destroyers, rebalanced Destroyers, and rebalanced cruisers hit the scene in Retribution, there will be a plethora of choice and it will take many months for the meta to settle down. Expect to not know what the hell you are facing on any given battle.

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To sum it all up, there will be fewer pilots but less farming and the pilots that remain will be fighting out of a couple capital systems to engage the enemy in the no man's land between the capital systems and in many different ship types. But don't expect any more capital fights than we've seen in the past.

Neighbourhood Watch

A lot of people have covered the finer details of the new Crimewatch mechanics introduced in this dev blog here, and I was going to write a similar post about my opinions but then I gave up.

I just don't care.

Crimewatch will be a success if I don't have to think about it. It should just work. It should just be intuitive. It should be fair. And it should not be exploitable.

If Team Five-0 can accomplish that with visible flags and expiry timers, clear logical events, and solid programming code, I'm happy. If not, I'll raise a fuss until its fixed.

One thing about being in faction warfare is that most of the time the crimewatch stuff does not impede my playstyle because I'm either fighting the Caldari who I am at war with or pirates who are all filthy criminals with terrible sec statuses.

Gah. This funk I'm in is ruining my posting. Long weekend coming up, hopefully some Eve time Sunday night will improve my mood.

Eve Online: Retribution = Most Boring Name Ever

I'll have more to say on the content of the expansion later (preview: I'm pleased so far) but I"m going to straight out say that when I heard that the name of the expansion was "Retribution" I audibly groaned.

So boring. So typical. I mean, I get the reason they are using it since they are making a new Bounty Hunter system / mechanic as central to this expansion ("I will get retribution for this act of violence!") but its a word that is overused in the sci fi and gaming genre.

Let's do a quick rundown of Expansion names:

Castor / The Second Genesis - The first is obviously an internal project name and the second is not bad for a first expansion to a game.

Exodus - Going for the Biblical theme, are we? Ok, it works for now.

Exodus: Red Moon Rising - Awesome name, still with the biblical theme.

Revelations I & II - Not as awesome. Still biblical but far more pop culture cliche.

Trinity - Clever use of word to indicate that this was originally called Revelations III. Forgiven since it brought in the new graphics engine.

Empyrean Age - Marks the first departure from biblical names and is a very original and awesome expansion name.

Quantum Rise - Proof that original does not mean awesome. A terrible name to a forgettable expansion. What does it even mean?!

Apocrypha - Best expansion name ever. Very relevant to the expansion content (it means "hidden" and this expansion introduced wormholes and sleepers) and totally badass when it rolls off the tongue.

Dominion - This one is OK, but a let down after Apocrypha. Side note: Canada used to be called the Dominion of Canada.

Tyrannis - I like this name a lot. Its relevant to the content (Planetary Inteaction which capsuleers are the tyrants over) and its original.

Incursion - This one, not so much. Its relevant, but not as original and fall flat for me.

Incarna - Love the name, even if the content was lacklustre.

Crucible - This was an awesome name. It was very meta as it refered to CCP itself forging a new direction rather than the major content of the expansion. And its very unique and original. Almost as good as Apocrypha.

Inferno - Middle of the road name. Has some sci fi connotations and relevant to the expansion content, but not original enough for me.

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Instead of Retribution I would have prefered something like Retaliation, Vengeance, Justice, or Punishment. Oh well, water under the bridge. Next time, CCP, call me. I can help you out.