Alphas and Perspectives: The Cautionary Tale of Art Hornbie

Way back in June of 2014 I wrote about Art Hornbie's blog and his culture shock at coming into EVE and finding things were not as he expected:

At first my reactions to these angry posts was the usual "get friends and do things", or to simply ignore them as the ravings of a bitter new player without the patience to work towards a goal. But over time as I continued to read his blog posts and consider them with an open mind, I realized that the issue is not his patience or ability to adapt, its the difference of a vastly different perspective on what Eve could be.
My Perspective
My perspective, and the one shared by the vast majority of the playerbase I suspect, is to view EVE's storyline and a lore as merely a backdrop to the actions and machinations of the player constructed entities, be they high sec manufacturers or null sec coalitions. I've often said that in EVE the players are the end game content and that roleplaying in EVE doesn't exist because players live the roles and don't need to play-act them.
On the other side, we have Art Hornbie and I'm going to try and paint what I think his perspective is. Imagine watching a show you love for years and getting a chance to visit the set. You walk down the street and decide to walk into a store and discover that inside the door the building is empty. Not just unfurnished, but a shell representing a store and not really a business. And the next house is also fake, like those ghost towns they used to build for nuclear tests. In fact, every building is a placeholder for a real business or home or utility but on the inside they are merely facades, painted to look the real thing but are not.
If you approach EVE as a living and vibrant sci-fi operatic universe filled with millions of souls moving in cohesion or conflict, and the players are mere actors in this milieu, then you are going to be sorely shocked to discover its all a two dimensional backdrop to the players that occasionally gets a new coat of paint or picture but is static and unresponsive the rest of the time. Don't bother looking for a man behind the curtain, the curtain hides only a brick wall.
This disappointment is further compounded by a game that continually gives more power to the players, which if you are a "players are the endgame" proponent is a good thing, but can be frustrating for a newer player who sees only the resources fought over and gobbled up by the string and/or numerous, leaving scraps (if anything) to the casual newer players.
And from that perspective, I can see why Art Hornbie writes what he does. I don't know if I agree with it and I definitely thinking he's tilting at windmills, so I'm patiently waiting for the "I'm Quitting" post albeit with a bit of sadness. Its possible the game Art expected and wants might have been a fun game if the technology could be built to allow it.
But its not EVE.

I was correct and Art Hornbie left EVE for Elite Dangerous a few short months later:

Well, after reading the CSM minutes, I plunked down my money for Elite:Dangerous. E:D's idea of billions of stars to precariously explore and frolic in appeals to me.
I've written before about how much fun it is to build things from scratch in Eve. Go out get the blueprints, harvesting the materials, assembling all the pieces and building a thing-a ma-jig. It's all fun until you realize that raw moon resources are all spoken for. Monopoly of content by those who have gone before stopped we newer players, me and my corp mates, dead in our tracks. And I've written about that ... extensively.
So the wide open opportunities that I presume are inherent within E:D are simply begging for me to discover and explore. A space game with actual space.
Eve doesn't have any much needed infinite-growth inhibitors so everything gets taken and monopolized by the few large constructs. In E:D, who cares! We'll just get what we need somewhere else; or, we'll simply operate on some fringe performing up to our capabilities. No more ghetto, no more content exclusion.
I'm looking forward to some real E:D space exploration of a logically laid out universe and discoverable resources. I expect I'll still Eve a bit, maybe.
Maybe I'm approaching one of those walk-away moments that I've read so much about. It's too bad, really, as the Eve Online sci-fi universe is so full and evolved. Wish it was actually part of the game.
Anyway, we all try new games from time to time. Since I'm a one-game kinda guy I'll be largely absent from Eve while I explore E:D. But I'll be checking in every once in a while to see if any content opens up for the progression of newer players.
Looking forward to the future of both games ... but more so for E:D atm as Eve has lost its way.

Consider this a cautionary tale for November and the possible incoming wave of Alpha players looking for a vibrant game they can plug into easily, or resources they can exploit alone or in small groups, and facing the same disappointment and uphill struggle Art Hornbie faced.

Demographic Shift

I've been continuing to ponder on the upcoming change to EVE to allow for unlimited play via Alpha clones and although I'm still leaning towards the position that not much will change in terms of EVE's cluster population since the game is still very niche and complicated, I've been considering the potential impacts to the game in case I'm wrong. And one thing I've come to realize that it seems pundits and podcasters seem to have overlooked is that if the Alpha clone change is successful, it probably means a large demographic shift.

Consider the assumption that there is a significant portion of potential EVE players who would be players if the subscription cost was not such a large barrier to entry to the game, as opposed to those potential players where the cost is not a big factor but the return on the cost is (i.e. I don't have enough time to play to get my ~$15 worth every month). Chances are this pool of potential players probably skews to younger ages that lack credit cards, or are in school so lack sources of income.

We know currently that the current demographic of players in EVE skews older than your typical game with the median age being almost 32:

Click for full size

So if everything goes according to plan and this pool of potential players that lack funds but have the time and inclination to play jump in with both feet, we could see that demographic map radically change to the left and the median age dropping significantly. If so, existing groups that welcome these new Alpha players in will have to prepare themselves mentally for dealing with players that are recognizably from a different generation with different priorities than the current crop of players.

Its possible that relaxed fleet comms discussing raising children or taking family vacations or house moves or renovations (etc) will change to other topics. In order to not date myself, I'm not going pretend I know enough about what 20 year olds talk about nowadays to try and give examples.

Corporations preparing to welcome with open arms these new players better be prepared for the culture shock at the same time on both sides.

Of Alphas and Omegas

I've been pondering the November release (can we call it "EVE Online: Out of Beta At Last"?) and I've listened to some podcasts (seriously, is Asherothi everywhere?!) and I'm ready to weigh in with my opinion on how EVE will change with the new free to play / unlimited trial Alpha clones.

In total, not that much.

While on the surface it seems like a game changer, and I can see how visions of newbros in Tristans and Merlins swelling the population of New Eden can be exciting, but I think everyone forgets that EVE Online is at the end of the day a very niche game, more of a sci-fi simulation actually, and while I expect we'll get some new players riding the free train but overall the major hurdles to expanding EVE's playerbase are still in place: the game is a massively complex simulation and very boring without social interaction and groups.

Now I realize that the New Player Experience is being worked on as part of this parcel by CCP Ghost, but I have trouble envisioning any NPE that can move a player from new to the game to enjoying it in its fullest to the point that significant numbers of Alpha clone players stick around and have an impact in any part of the game outside of high sec. EVE's just not built that way; only the most determined fight through the early part of the learning cliff.

I also realize that some larger groups plan to have programs in place to guide Alpha clone newbros to their organizations to increase their numbers and add to their fleets, but again I think people are vastly overestimating both the usefulness of these pilots with their Tech 1 modules and ships, and how much fun in low sec/null sec/wormholes that these skill limited pilots are going to have. After all, they will have less defensive tank, offensive damage, less speed and maneuverability, all of that on top of less experience in the game. And as they gain experience and learn why the pilot in the novice plex in a Tech 1 Incursus comepletely murders them anyways in a fight (along with two of their buddies), they are going to get frustrated and quit more often than they pay for an Omega clone.

In other words, Alpha clone players will exist, mostly in high sec, but they will not impact the game in a meaningful manner in my humble opinion.

I could be wrong. In fact, I hope I'm wrong and EVE is transformed into a two caste system bustling with players working and fighting together. But I'm setting my expectations low.