The Age of Sovless Wars

World War Bee (or the War of Sovless Aggression) taught us several things I think are worth pondering over.

The Fozzie sov system had its first epic test in the most recent great war and it demonstrated one truth is still true: all things being equal, the side with N pilots is defeated by the side with N+1 pilots. No amount of strategy or doctrines could have saved the Imperium from the wall of enemies arrayed against them, but what for certain doomed them to lose sovereignty was the lack of numbers to defend their space. The Mittani can blame it on Fizzle Sov and how the any attacker can aggressively  entosis while only the sov holder alliance can defensively counter-entosis, but really he's just trying to deflect blame from the Imperium's failures in diplomacy, grand strategy, and leadership.

Another lesson from this war was the sheer concentration of ISK in the hands of gambling site owners. This war would not happen without the infusion of ISK from IWANTISK bankers looking to settle a score with parts of the Imperium. While the ISK was not necessary to the victory over the Imperium, it was necessary to motivate several parties to make the effort to see it happen. Once they found the Imperium unable to withstand the assault, natural predator instincts took over.

I fear the results of these rich individuals learning of their power that the ISK can buy. Its possible we are entering the Age of Sovless wars where holding or taking sov is a secondary consideration, and the real factors have to do with who the ISK holders want destroyed. After all, if you can be paid to fight instead of having to rat for your ISK, wouldn't you take that option too?

The war for Deklien may be over and parts of the Moneybadger coalition breaking up, but I expect hostilities to continue for a long time. It was years before CVA restored their dominance in Providence and the area of the North that was razed was many times larger and is now being balkanized into semi-friendly/semi-hostile kingdoms. And don't think for a moment that the Goons will sit in Saranen forever pouting over everyone in the playground coming to kick their sandcastle over. In the end, this upset of the status quo in the North is good for everyone involved and the new life breathed into the Reasons To Be for both winners and losers will fuel wars for much time to come. 

The real question is how will citadels and capital changes affect the next war?

Interesting times indeed.

Awesome Article

This article on Rock Paper Shotgun is amazing:

Goonswarm: Your Freedom Awaits

Barring any dramatic shifts in the current course of the war, the Imperium is fucked. Cluster fucked, one might say.

Image from Crossing Zebras

Null sec wars in the Dominion and now Aegis eras both have a similar feature where if you start to lose battles consistently without any wins, pilots start to abandon ship so to speak, making it harder to win the next battle. Meanwhile on the other side, winning tends to attract more pilots making it easier to win fighters. This double negative-positive feedback loop tends to make the contest of sov warfare end very quickly, and this war is no exception. The Imperium lost, Money Badgers won. And no Boredom Doctrine is going to save them.

While this is bad news for the Imperium coalition and their blinded-by-their-own-success leadership, this is great news for the member alliances who have been starving for real content and challenges for years now. After all, solid stable sovereignty is a millstone around long term viability and enjoy-ability for any alliance. We've seen it happen again and again: long term alliance living safely in one place loses the best FCs and PvP pilots who go looking for adventure and fill the holes with ratters and F1 button pressers (which to be fair, every alliance needs to a point) and when a real challenge comes along, they collapse under the strain of trying to replicate the success that brought them together in the first place. This normal pattern is further compounded by arrogant Imperium leadership who lived in an echo chamber of backslapping and yes-man-ship. 

But Goonswarm, you are about to be freed from this prison of your own making! Let the Imperium burn, let the fat cat ratters and other fair-weathered find new lodgings. Let your hatred of the Money Badgers keep you warm in a new less appointed hearth in low sec as you plot your revenge. Sharpen teeth in fleets roaming free from timers and CTAs, develop new FCs and new doctrines, build new spy networks and relationships.

And when you are ready, when you are truly free from the shackles of past Imperuim arrogance, let war wage again.