Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Writer's Block

I seem to be suffering from writer's block.

I'm still in EVE and playing when I can, but the words for the blog have not been coming. Part of it is due to being extremely busy in real life but the large part is due to the fact that Fanfest has come and gone and nothing in my area of EVE is going to change much for the next 6 months. No faction warfare changes, no radical ship changes or additions, and no new content.

I still enjoy taking fleets out and hanging with my FEDUP allies, but nothing of note to blog about.


Monday, May 08, 2017

Audit Final Results

With the audit complete I was able to determine how much I wanted to payout for the dividend and then calculate the new value of shares.

This morning I paid a 20 billion ISK dividend payout to the 4000 shares, and subtracted that from the final numbers for the value of the corp. That still left the corp at a 28.45% increase in value over the 6 month period. I then increased the buyback value of the class 2 shares from 15 million ISK each to 19.2 million ISK each. The handful of outstanding class 1 shares increased in value from 5 million ISK to 6.4 million ISK, and the class 3 shares representing my personal investment increased to an even 9 million ISK.

I do not expect as good results over the next 6 month period simply because the early Azbel sales represented a significant portion of this past period's results. That being said, I'll strive to continue to increase the value of their investment for my shareholders.

Now, off to market to get the factories humming again!

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Audit Progress

The first thing to do for the audit is make a list of everything the corporation owns. Thankfully, this is pretty straight forward.

Visiting the Corporation window I can quickly scan the deliveries and offices and copy the relevant items from the lists and paste them in the spreadsheet. In order to make it clear I've covered everything, I group items in the audit list by system they are found in, so for example, I've got Tritanium listed three times for three different locations.

Once deliveries and offices have been checked (as well as quick check in Impounded and Safety tabs to make sure I didn't forget something) I can check the In Space tab, showing my Engineering Complex. I took control of the structure and copied its fitting and ammo supplies to the spreadsheet.

Lastly I check the builds in flight and add them to the list. Fortunately, in anticipation of the audit I only have a few end products rather than a host of components to account for.

Now that I have the list of items, I need to apply a monetary value to them.

For most items, this is as simple as looking up on EVE-Central their highest buy order price at a market hub (because I'm not going to bum-fuck no where to get the best price on Coolant) and use that value, the thinking being if I needed to liquidate the assets as quickly as possible then that would be the price I would get. For some items, like the Moros in build, I have a buyer lined up with an agreed upon price that I used in the spreadsheet. And for the expendables, like the rigs on the Raitaru, I assign a value of zero as they are sunk costs and can't be recovered.

Finally I added the current wallet balance to the sheet and summed it up. Final total: 84,603,490,012.78 ISK, up from 50,295,522,390.26 ISK last November. That's a 68.21% increase in value if my math is right, so two thumbs up from this guy.

The next step is to determine the dividend payout which will decrease that 84 billion value and thus the percent increase in value of the corporation, and then I can calculate the new value of shares.


Monday, May 01, 2017

End of (6 Month) Year

Back when I solicited for Project Vulcan Phase IV, I talked about the dividend payout plan:
Investment Details
My manufacturing Corporation, Ninveah Enterprises, will create and issue 4000 shares, 2000 which will be for sale to the public, 2000 owned by me.
The 2000 shares for sale to the public will be sold at a price of 15,000,000 ISK/unit which when all sold will represent 30,000,000,000 (30 billion) ISK investment.
The 2000 shares owned by me represent the current corporate holdings of blueprint originals, blueprint copies, current stocks of materials, and liquid ISK estimated at over 50 billion ISK.
Shares will receive a dividend payout approximately every 6 months (in early May not later than May 30 and early Nov not later than Nov 30) after an inventory audit is performed to calculate the current net worth of the corporation and the value is compared to the previous net worth. If the net worth has gone down, no dividend will be paid out. The first dividend payout is scheduled for May 2017.

Here we are in the beginning of May and its time to discuss the details.

Back in November, the holdings of the corporation were about 8 billion ISK, and I had raised 42.195 billion ISK for the Industrial Complex project. This week I'm going to do an audit the same way; calculate the value of assets and capital the corporation currently owns. This will be complicated by the builds in flight (1 cap, 3 structures) and assigning a value to them (probably the highest buy order on common markets) but shouldn't be too much of a problem.

Once the audit is complete, I'll designate an amount of the liquid reserves for a dividend payout. Dividends are like a reward for shareholders owning shares and are not intended to replace the value of owning shares. After the dividend payout is accounted for, I'll calculate the percentage increase in value of the corporation and increase the value of the shares. What this means is that if you choose to sell any of your shares back to the corporation, they will be bought back at a higher value than you purchased them for. 

For example, Shareholder Jim owns 10 shares purchased in November for 15 million each. The dividend payout is 1 million ISK per share so he receives 10 million ISK in his wallet. The shares increase 10% in value so if he chooses to sell the shares back to the corporation, he receives 16.5 million ISK per share, or 165 million ISK.

"Can you give me a guesstimate on how much I can expect?"

Well, the corp wallet has ~37 billion ISK in it, so at the low end I expect that the value of the corporation has increased 50%. Starting point I'm aiming for a 10 billion ISK payout on 4000 shares, or 2.5 million ISK per share, and at least a 25% increase in share value. But we'll see how the numbers shake out, and I will be open with the calculations and decisions and reasons behind them.

Ultimately I want to make sure we are poised well for the fall/winter and the upcoming refinery structures being released. I don't imagine we'll have enough ISK for the large refinery BPO which will be more than the Azbel and less than the Fortizar (so guessing around the 50 bil mark) but definitely want to hit the ground running on the medium refinery BPO and builds.

SO, on to the audit!

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Rough Times

Having a rough week, nothing serious, just in the dumps. Work, life, lack of fun, wearing me down.

Post coming about the dividend payout for my shareholders, maybe Friday (running the roads again tomorrow).

Take care of yourself.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Warzone Dynamics

In response to my last post where I said "[w]ithout intervention, Faction Warfare is going to wither and die" commenter Easy Esky asked:

How specifically is it dying? Has there been a noticeable decrease in the number of players in FW systems? Is there a way to overview LP volumes to see it reduced? Just looking at the number of ships killed in FW zones, is it smaller? I ask these questions, because if you can demonstrate actual decline then it will get traction with CCP.
Wasn't there a massive resurgence by the Caldari which saw them win against odds to take Gallante down? Events like this do not speak of a declining play style. 
I readily admit that I have no interest in wading through the records from ZKillboard or some other database and finding the statistics. I blog for fun of writing and have no time in my busy life to dedicate to that kind of project.

But I can tell you my impressions from being active in the warzone over the past multiple years, as well as talking to other players.

Yes, there was a massive resurgence by the Caldari militia that was fueled by new Alpha pilots from the Ascension release, and it saw them push Gallente down to tier 1 and took some long held systems like Vlillier and Nennamailia.

And yes, Federation Uprising had a tough campaign more recently against Black Shark Cult in the south of the warzone.

But the overall activity in the warzone outside of those conflicts has been quieter in my impression, and since the conclusion of those campaigns the opposing militia has seemed more subdued than ever.

Let's take a 5 second look at Black Rise kills for the past two years and a bit:


As you can see, Black Rise's heyday was late 2015, started to lose steam in 2016 until the Ascension release which powered the big spike on the right, but as 2017 wears on and the Alpha wave peters out we see declining numbers (and yes, the drop off on the end of the graph is the incomplete for April).

Now, one can look at that graph and say "March is usually slow as spring gets people out" but I counter with this: concurrent players is averaging higher due to Alphas but Feb and Mar for Black Rise were amoung the low points for the past two years. The rising tide of alphas is leaving the main battleground of Faction Warfare behind.

If I were a real journalist, or even am amateur one which I am not, I would sit down and spend a few days running over Zkillboard stats and player logins and what not, trying to prove that Faction Warfare is stagnating. I don't have the time. But I hope someone at CCP is taking the time to check on the health of this gameplay and see if it needs a shot in the arm.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Election Ruminations

EVE Fan Fest has come and gone and and a new set of faces have been announced as winning the election for CSM. Alas, Faction Warfare representative Scylus Black who I supported was not one the the ten players elected.

It was always going to be an uphill battle for a Faction Warfare rep to get elected with only 10 seats available, even if all the militias united behind him. But I'm still disappointed in the makeup of the CSM which sports 7 null sec members, 1 hard core wormholer, Fuzzy Steve who is unclassifiable, and a youtube video maker, only the last of which has an interest in a vibrant and dynamic low sec environment, and none that require faction warfare to be thriving. If FW were the gateway for new players (both Alpha and Omega) to be introduced to PvP before having the option to going to null sec or wormholes, then I'd feel like those candidates have some common interest with me and my alliance, but EVE is not a zone progression game and those other areas of space wisely setup their own new player organizations like Pandemic Horde and Brave Newbies to gather up the recruits. On the other hand, FW can be a destination and not just a stage for pilots... as long as its healthy.

I've discussed previously how structures have changed the warzone:
What this means is that NPC stations are quickly losing their cachet as homes for militia corporations and alliances, and they are being replaced by home Citadels that they cannot be locked out of by plexing enemy fleets. Furthermore, as faction warfare moves to concentrate on attacking and destroying enemy citadels, this provides upward pressure on fleet size and more frequent bat-phoning of capital heavy nearby entities top provide more firepower for destroying these large structures or counter-dropping firepower as deterrent for enemy fleets. No longer can a militia remain agnostic to the politics of the low sec entities that they share space with.

And threw out an idea to start to address it:
So I propose we extend the station lockout mechanic that currently applies to NPC Stations in faction warfare systems to anchored structures in said systems.
But the problem is not a problem for anyone outside of low sec (or even outside of the militias to a large degree) and any solution probably will have little to no impact on anyone outside of the militia pilots so the likelihood that any of the CSM 12 members will push to address it or be able to advocate well should CCP bring up the topic is low, and that is disheartening.

Without intervention, Faction Warfare is going to wither and die. Right now its quickly becoming only a farming mechanic with some jostling over tier levels and no strong desire for open direct conflict outside of meaningless good fights. Far more engaging is the emergent play over structures like POCOs, citadels, and engineering complexes as well as the refineries and moon politics next year, none of which has any hook into faction warfare. You might as well not be in a militia unless you roleplay or your members need the mechanic to make money. And that's sad.

It is often said that Faction Warfare suffers from "good enough" syndrome in CCP, but at some point we need to tell CCP loudly that FW is no longer good enough but is indeed dying. Do they want to save it?

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