It looks like my initial prediction of no "full scale sov war with the goal being the utter destruction of one side or the other, or at least pushing one side out of null sec sov holder status which usually precedes a breakup and a few alliance closures" is going to be true as Montolio of Test alliance has backed down and cooler heads in Pandemic Legion, Goonswarm, and others have prevailed.
Its a sad statement on the status of Goonswarm when the prospect of big ass fights that mean something in the long run is not enough to get them to commit to a fight. Its an even sadder statement on how far Pandemic Legion has fallen into the glut of Technetium decadence that they are the one's cautioning against full out war and instead think their should be safe and controlled consensual PvP.
These are the same luminaries that proudly proclaim that suicide ganking in high sec should be protected as a game play style because Eve is a non-consensual PvP game. At least the old Northern Coalition had the guts to start a war with its coalition level rivals ("LXQ2-T or bust!" I was there!).
The story that all that sov structure grinding is too much to contemplate and its all CCP's fault because they have not revisited the Dominion sov rules rings hollow when one realizes that only an idiot thinks that to win a war in Eve you have to beat all of his sov structures like a game of space chess. You beat the enemy's morale to a pulp first, then you let the grunts who want the space clean up the sov grind. The Mittani and Shadoo are quite aware of this, I'm sure, but don't let truth get in the way of good propaganda.
Never thought I'd feel sorry for Montolio.
If all this stage show has been real, its been very illuminating on the state of null sec in these big coalitions. I hope whatever "war" these entities starts burns out of control due to the bloodthirstiness of the grunts and the grudges that are sure to develop. I kind of also want Goons and Pandemic Legion to take some boots to the teeth in this war, but I'm not betting any money.
On the other hand, who cares? Low sec is where the fun is... =)