I've been composing this post in my head for a week now so we'll see if it comes out on paper as nice as it sounds in my head.
There has been several suggestions around the meta-community lately along the lines that a war between the Goon-led Cluster Fuck Coaltion (CFC) and the TEST-led Honey Badger Coalition (HBC) is brewing and practically inevitable this year.
First off, let's define what we mean by "war". I'm not talking about a dust up over some moons, or a conflict between a few alliances that are parts of each coalition, or an exercise in war-games over a constellation or a region. We are talking about full scale sov war with the goal being the utter destruction of one side or the other, or at least pushing one side out of null sec sov holder status which usually precedes a breakup and a few alliance closures. Total war, if you will; an existential threat to both sides.
And for CFC and HBC, that's not going to happen in 2013.
There are many reasons why I am making this prediction, but primarily it has to do with one simple fact: the core of each coalition, Goons and Test respectively, still like each other. Remember that Goons mentored the early Test pilots, giving them space to live and grow without the rough period of finding their feet in the wilds of null like a lot of nascent alliances must do. A Big Brother / Little Brother metaphor if you will. And although Test alliance has grown up and can stand on their own two feet for some time now, there is still a banked amount of goodwill between the leadership of these two alliances. As Goons/Test goes, so goes the majority of the alliance in their respective coalitions.
On other words, they still like each other so war will be avoided. For now, 2013 at least I predict will be clear.
But like any big brother/little brother dynamic, when the big brother is big and successful and in many cases arrogant, the younger sibling may chafe at being told what to do and living in his older sibling's shadow even though he is quite successful himself. Perceived slights, real or not, will become magnified in this relationship and that banked goodwill will erode, especially with the lessor members of each coalition with their own agendas and grudges working to whisper poison into the fertile minds of their overlords. After all, while Goons and Test are blue to each other there are a lot of alliances in both that are not blue to the alliances in the other. This will result in many brush fires this year, and each one will force Goons and Test to stress their common ties further. Inch by inch, pulled apart..
Brush fires this year, infernos next?
(DISCLAIMER: I am far far removed from any actual workings of any alliance in either of these coalitions.)