Why The Success of the NC is Not The End Of Eve Online

With the fall of IT alliance some quarters are jumping up and down that the end of Eve is nigh. With the NC controlling half of null sec and dominating everyone in terms of sheer numbers and ability to throw together massive fleets one after another, there seems to be nothing to fight the NC and null sec wars are essentially over.

Which is all, of course, poppycock.

The Perception

First, let's address one major fact: there are more than one coalition in the group that people reference by 'the NC' and they don't always work hand in hand. In fact, outside of a major enemy invasion they often have very little to do with each other.

The Reality - Rough Edition

"So what's the difference?" Well, the difference is that such a large loose relationship is good for defence against a marauding horde but sucks for defence against small roamers or for launching bloc level attacks. Sure the NC got some traction against the Drone Region Forces last summer but ultimately failed to make good the progress in Etherium Reach (ignoring for now the effects the Pandemic Legion contract had in that eventual outcome). If the NC were a unified bloc under a single point of command then I would share concerns, but at most its a mutual defence agreement.

The second point of contention is that there is no one to stand up to the NC. Well, the Drone Region Forces demonstrated quite ably last major conflict (and with Rebellion Alliances recent collapse) that they can fight toe to toe with the NC and give as good as get. Pandemic Legion inflicted billions of ISK damage before they withdrew from Venal, and caused untold havoc in Pure Blind during their stay there. Had IT alliance been of sound body and mind it may have been able mount a better fight in Fountain instead of folding like a stack of cards. Against ALL Authorities has retaken most of its previous space and with its allies at its side represent a sizable bloc that will probably grow in the coming months.

Finally, does this coalition of coalitions mean the end of war in null sec? Of course not. There are four possible scenarios:

1) NC continues to grow and no or few bloc level entities can stand against them. Result: more and more space within the NC itself for small alliances / corporations to attack and reap the rewards of carebears and inattentive pilots, weakening the alliance bonds and eventually causing a civil war because, ultimately, pilots want to fight.

2) NC growth stalls and remains flat. Result: status quo until outside entities get stronger and stagnant NC grows weak on old PvP experience leaving and inexperience becoming the rule of the day for NC fleets.

3) NC growth stops and begins to contract as no outside pressure causes fissures in coalitions to become fractures and factions pull away from each other. Result: Civil war.

In other words, I don't think there is any scenario where the current NC remains as it is today. Except one:

4) NC growth stalls but outside forces continue to fight against it, keeping the coalitions that make up the coalition close and continue to provide experience for the pilots and FCs such that losses of experienced players leaving is equaled by pilots learning.

TL;DR - The way to kill the NC is to leave it alone and it will kill itself. After all, Eve is not like real life: the people in Eve need war, peace will not do.