Over at Fiddler's Edge, Mord Fiddle wrote me my very own post called The Perils of Prognostication in response to my Fountain War: Prognosis post earlier this week. Honestly, I'm flattered by the attention as I love Mord's blog and his writing style. I was very excited to get my own post.
His main opposition to my post seems to center around the Crossing Zebra's post I referenced in which two Pandemic Legion pilots and Xander spends a considerable amount of verbage decrying the participation rates and organization of TEST alliance. Mord's position seems to be that Xander, being part of the CFC, and Pandemic Legion, being not really part of the effort against the CFC, are giving a slanted pro-CFC point of view. Thus resting my opinion on this source is like building a Sand Castle on a beach: one good wave of reality and it falls apart.
However, my "prognosis" was built on a lot more than that one interview. Pilot balance issues between the CFC and TEST fleets have been brought up in several venues, including the podcast Cap Stable which is run by TEST pilots. Reports on the news websites and blogs also indicate similar trends.
But I based most of my prognosis on past experiences. Back when I was in null sec I was in a few winning and losing major wars. I know what holding the line feels and sounds like, and I know what collapsing house of cards feels and sounds like too. And at the end of the day, my gut leans more towards the latter than the former.
Now, by all admission I am no null sec expert commentator (its more of a hobby) but I'm sticking to my guns on this one for the reasons I gave in my original post: TEST is on track to lose this war.
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As a side note, I think Mord insinuated in a comment yesterday on my Project Vulcan update that I might be shilling my blog as a propaganda piece for the CFC for rights to build capitals in their sov space. I'm honoured he thinks I might be that devious. :)