Monday, July 15, 2013

Fountain War: Prognosis

Last week I asked some questions and I got answers in comments, emails, EveNews24, podcasts and from just plain digging around. I admit my original questions were leading to suggest that this war between CFC and TEST was more of an arranged and controlled thunderdome and not a true unbridled war but I've heard enough to convince me that this war seems real. And I've come to a conclusion.

TEST is screwed.

Best Case Scenario

What is the best case scenario for TEST right now?
- Excellent participation rates
- ship reimbursement program humming along
- finances in good shape
- allies committed and coordinated
- enemies distracted by attacks from third parties

And where does reality diverge from this ideal?


- On the Crossing Zebras interview two Pandemic Legion head honchos deplored the state of TEST's participation numbers multiple times

- In the same interview, they commented how their fleets are not coordinating with TEST and Nulli and NCDOT fleets very closely compared to CFC fleets

- TEST made a big deal last week about being up to date on their ship reimbursement program, but rumours abound that private donors made contributions to make up the shortfall of 40 billion ISK. More rumours and insinuations can be found everywhere that TEST's finances are in shambles

- Pandemic Legion has admitted publicly to having one foot out of the door on this war already. They like the fighting but if things start to fall apart or stop being fun they will simply back out and go find something else to do.

- Nulli has been distracted and pulled away by the disbanding of their renter alliance and a resurging SOLAR Fleet alliance. People with tin foil hats might point out that Goons have traditionally had good relations with Russian alliances and that a contribution to SOLAR's war chest from CFC coffers would make a lot of sense

- CFC were having problems with Black Legion and friends in the north, so paid them off to stop attacking so as they were free to concentrate on Fountain

As you can see, while things are not absolute worst case scenario, they are far from the best case. If I were TEST leadership, I'd be thinking about my exit strategy at this point before this war grinds your alliance apart. Losing a major war does not have to be a death knell for an alliance, but it can be.


  1. So, your primary source for PL's poition on the war is a Crossing Zebras podcast. Lovely fellas. Nice podcast. (Though I do wish Xander would lose his poka-dot t-shirt)

    Nevertheless, one must recall they are CFC members and have a vested interest in the outcome of the conflict. It is interesting that their departure from dull and mostly harmless CSM/CCP interviews that have the virtue of being CFC content free, is an interview with PL folks who say uncomplimentary things about Test Alliance and lead one to believe they're ready to abandon the war against CFC.

    Not saying that's Xander and Jeg's motivation. Like I said - nice fellas(Xander's fashion sense notwithstanding). Still. Makes me feel like your hanging your prognosis on a wobbly hook.

  2. Hardly my primary source of info, Mord.

  3. Since it's the only source of information you mention, Mord can be forgiven for assuming it's the primary one - the rest is just unfounded rumour-mongoring until you can provide a source.

    A lot of your points are either weak or simply untrue. If you'd asked someone in one of the alliances involved, you might have saved yourself a poorly-informed blog post, but I'll do my best to clear it up for you anyway.

    In order;

    - We're a month into a sov war. It's got to the point where a lot of the action is timers swapping back and forth. Of course TEST's participation is down. So is everyone else's. This is neither unexpected nor unusual, and unless the CFC comes up with some incredible way of boosting participation on their side, it doesn't matter.

    - PL's fleets aren't coordinating with TEST's and NC.'s. Obviously. PL isn't even officially involved in this war, let alone an ally. Even if they were, they've never been big on inter-alliance coordination. NCdot is coordinating fine, on the other hand - less than CFC because the CFC is a years-old coalition, but enough that it doesn't make much difference.

    - TEST made a big deal of it in the form of a reddit post - yep. And there are no rumours that TEST is accepting donations; it was explicitly stated in the SOTA. Total donations thus far are closer to 200b than 40b, as a conservative estimate - this leaderboard shows donations from within the alliance for this month only:

    - See above. Pandemic Legion hardly got one foot in the door.

    - Nulli was distracted for all of eight hours by the dropping of more than 200 systems. They got it all back at a rate of approximately eight minutes per system. SOLAR didn't take a single timer. NC. is not having any trouble with the russians.

    - The CFC paid off Black Legion, not their friends. 401k is still fucking with the CFC in the north. Besides which, the contract with BL costs the CFC ~200b every month. Either they'll discontinue it, which'll take BL back to screwing with the CFC, or they won't and they'll be leaking ISK like anything.

    As you can see, things are not as dismal for TEST as CFC propaganda seems to have persuaded you. If anything, the war is nothing more than a stalemate for the moment - look at dotlan if you don't believe that.

    1. *checks dotlan this morning, see 9-V*

      Hmmm hmmm... ;)

    2. We lost a station after Goons hyped that op up for days and days. It's gonna happen.

      I guess we'll just have to take it back like the other four station systems we've taken from Goons this month.

    3. In all sincerity, I hope you do :)