I stated before that a massive sov war against the Northern Coalition of Alliances was doomed to failure due to the unifying and rallying effect that an existential military threat creates. In essence, minor differences of opinion and disagreements fall to the wayside in order to band together and face the enemy shoulder to shoulder, the large size and resources of the NC providing the firepower and numbers to eventually push back any gains the enemy had made. In my defense, I had Maximum Damage and Max 2 campaigns as well as Pandemic Legions last stay in Venal to reference in the forming of my hypothesis.
However, the Geminate war has continued unabated and now with Pandemic Legion and DRF opening up new offensives into Vale of the Silent, coupled with assistance from NCDot and Ev0ke in Pure Blind to distract and weaken guest alliances such as FCON, things are looking decidedly less rosy. While I have no special insight into the mindset of alliance FCs and leadership, its not hard to look at the attitudes of people left and right of me and facing constant CTAs for what feels like months to know that morale is low and the enemy is eager to put us to the sword.
Pandemic Legion alone is causing untold mountains of grief in US timezone ops with their considerable supercap assets and willingness to commit them to battle, not to mention the Tengu/Scimitar fleets of doom. (Side note: anyone else thrilled at the number of types of fleets these days seen around town? AHACs, Mael shield fleets, Abaddon armour fleets, arty Abaddons, Drake fleets, and now Tengu fleets? Crazy!) There is a definite uneasiness in the rank and file that perhaps the fuel of the war machine was spent in Geminate in the winter and now there is not enough to withstand the renewed onslaught.
I maybe I was wrong. Maybe a well executed sov war over a long period of time will bring the NC crashing down. I think we are pretty far yet from the fail cascade point, but its hard to tell and examples like IT alliance show that sudden implosions can happen anytime.
Of course, there are many scenarios where the impending doom cloud is lifted:
- the Against ALL Authorities offensive against White Noise in the south may distract the DRF from following up recent gains,
- a successful defeat or two of Pandemic Legion including crushing some of their supercaps might drain their enthusiasm for the fight,
- the Deklein Coalition having grown bored on getting rich with no serious sov threats may come wholesale into the conflict and swing the pendulum once more to the NC side.
On the other hand, lots of things may occur to hasten the end of the NC:
- Triple AAA and friends may have no impact,
- PL kills another sizable NC supercap fleet,
- the Deklein Coalition decides to reset NC and attacks in the west.
May you live in interesting times indeed.