Paxton space in Providence region will not be invaded by Against ALL Authorities. I have no strong evidence for this bold prediction, but I have a lot of circumstantial evidence and rumours.
1) Paxton was for the status quo (i.e. no sov wars) prior to the aggression by CVA and the Holders into Catch and AAA knows this through spies.
2) AAA liked having a "garden" in the region next door for simple no-consequence fights. They even offered for CVA to go back to that no-sov-war hostility after the fall of D-GTMI in exchange for giving back said system. When CVA refused the deal the greater invasion of Providence was planned.
3) The new Holders that AAA is helping to install are supposedly going to get standings reset to AAA once CVA is scrubbed from the region. Thus it looks like when the old Garden got unruly, AAA ripped out the bad plants and reseeded it with more compliant groups.
4) Paxton space, excepting D-GTMI, has been untouched by sov claims despite being very active in all CVA and Holders fleets during the fighting.
5) CVA was spotted participating in Factional Warfare instead of fighting in Providence.
So based on those three presuppositions, why would AAA not attack Paxton and remove it from the board much like STEEL and Severance were? One argument is that Paxton space is not a tight pocket constellation and thus not as attractive, but the other argument that fits the rumours and evidence is that AAA see no need to remove Paxton and prefers to leave our alliance alone as being good neighbours for "good fights" without sov warfare nonsense.
My prediction will be either verified or proven false soon. CVA is a shadow in Providence now after last week's major offensive controlling merely 5 disconnected stations out of Providence's 50. Besides Paxton, only LFA is still around from the old Holders and they lost one station in their pocket constellation to U'K this past weekend. (Note: FCON is still holding systems in Northern Catch.)
If my prediction is true, and CVA is soon pushed completely out of Providence yet Paxton remains, the resulting region will be a chaotic combination of hostile entities locked in constant warfare gang and fleet warfare but with few opportunities for taking each other's space (especially if AAA steps in when something does threaten).
Sounds like fun actually.