Monday, April 12, 2010

Bold Prediction Time

Paxton space in Providence region will not be invaded by Against ALL Authorities. I have no strong evidence for this bold prediction, but I have a lot of circumstantial evidence and rumours.

1) Paxton was for the status quo (i.e. no sov wars) prior to the aggression by CVA and the Holders into Catch and AAA knows this through spies.

2) AAA liked having a "garden" in the region next door for simple no-consequence fights. They even offered for CVA to go back to that no-sov-war hostility after the fall of D-GTMI in exchange for giving back said system. When CVA refused the deal the greater invasion of Providence was planned.

3) The new Holders that AAA is helping to install are supposedly going to get standings reset to AAA once CVA is scrubbed from the region. Thus it looks like when the old Garden got unruly, AAA ripped out the bad plants and reseeded it with more compliant groups.

4) Paxton space, excepting D-GTMI, has been untouched by sov claims despite being very active in all CVA and Holders fleets during the fighting.

5) CVA was spotted participating in Factional Warfare instead of fighting in Providence.

So based on those three presuppositions, why would AAA not attack Paxton and remove it from the board much like STEEL and Severance were? One argument is that Paxton space is not a tight pocket constellation and thus not as attractive, but the other argument that fits the rumours and evidence is that AAA see no need to remove Paxton and prefers to leave our alliance alone as being good neighbours for "good fights" without sov warfare nonsense.

My prediction will be either verified or proven false soon. CVA is a shadow in Providence now after last week's major offensive controlling merely 5 disconnected stations out of Providence's 50. Besides Paxton, only LFA is still around from the old Holders and they lost one station in their pocket constellation to U'K this past weekend. (Note: FCON is still holding systems in Northern Catch.)

If my prediction is true, and CVA is soon pushed completely out of Providence yet Paxton remains, the resulting region will be a chaotic combination of hostile entities locked in constant warfare gang and fleet warfare but with few opportunities for taking each other's space (especially if AAA steps in when something does threaten).

Sounds like fun actually.


  1. Interesting predictions that seem to make sense. Indeed it does sound like fun! I predict that you and I may find some opportunities to throw ammo at each other again soon :)

    How's the latest member of the Carebear Brigade doing?

  2. Better start taking some CVA systems then, so that you can have a decent jump bridge route out of Provi that doesn't involve going through enemy space. Both Y-MP and KBP belong to reds, and there's a lot of travel through red space to reach either exit. You can always carrier jump to lowsec, but that's not great for getting people and large amounts of stuff in and out.

  3. What I feel will happen, and I may be totally wrong because I know nothing of sov warfare, is that Providence will essentially become a skirmish warfare region à la Curse or Syndicate, which is totally fine by me.

    Oh btw Kirith, I saw some of your M3 mates over the weekend, so my guess is we may yet have this dance :))

  4. Time will tell. I think -A- main focus is and has been CVA for obvious reasons and that focus remains. It would be hard to put too much faith in what will happen once CVA is truly removed from Provi.

  5. @Mynxee: Boy#3 is doing very well. Growing like a weed.

  6. Yeah who cares about Eve, what about the brigade. Errr no wait don't shoooooo....... (plop)

    What abouth the northern war? When this mess started AAA was supposed to go fight Goons. When that crashed and CVA said hi instead they made this decision with their garden.

    But now that North vs South is starting up, would they be more instreted in getting into the epic fight then pulling up the remaining weed. After all with NO KNOWLEDGE in me, I think it is safe to say Paxton Federation is not going to take out AAA this summer. Maybe by the Fall, but right away.

    Just a thought, you are better judge then me. I am still trying to figure out scanning.

  7. I kinda think you're prediction will be borne out by events. I had thought, based on a couple of AAA peeps I talked to a while back, that they were going to let CVA live. I don't think those sources expected CVA to be so difficult about coming to an accommodation. I really wish I knew more about who/what forces were responsible for CVA's military foolishness. How did they justify it to others? How did justify it to themselves?

  8. As far as I have been told we have no plans to take out Paxton or LFA. I know Ushra'Khan opportunistically took F-DTOO but that was not part of -A-'s plans. I would guess that Paxton and LFA are not seen as sovereignty threats and do not hold strategically important systems like Cold Steel and Sev7rance did. With a sea of neutrals between them and high security space their supply lines have been cut off and, if they want to, Ushra'Khan can have some fun contesting those remaining systems. By this time tomorrow CVA will have no more station systems although we have left them the odd non-station system because they might as well foot the sov bill for those.

    The plan with Providence is pretty much as you have said. We have installed residents who are interested in a state of permanent small gang warfare without getting involved in sovereignty wars. -A- will make sure that there are no territory disputes but beyond that it is a free for all. Hopefully everyone will benefit from this system and Providence will be a lively place to look to get fights without being camped in by a Citadel response fleet. Even Paxton, LFA, and any CVA remnants (I've seen them around R3-K7K) should have more fun with the new system.

    As for -A-'s intentions... the Northern Coalition is the opposite of everything we stand for. It must be destroyed.

  9. Anonymous2:28 pm

    Look in this crystal ball.

    In the thread, Manny says:

    AAA won't be trying to remove Paxton. I rather like them they got some spunk and aren't afraid to fight. For that reason alone they will be staying in providence. Eventually D-G will be passed back to them as well.

    Also, post 63 of the same thread:

    *EDIT - Paxton made no deal with us. I just like there fighting spirit lack of smacktalk and they seemed to like the relationship we had. As far as people roaming our space darwinism is the best weed control. Dumb people should die its good for everyone else. Please roam more!

    See ya out there!
    /me rattles Sabre