No matter how you spin it, Red Alliance (RA) is in a failure cascade:
Loss of corps, pilots, sovereignty, outposts... Yep, it is in a tailspin. Whether or not it can pull out of the death spiral is up in the air but doubtful. Many alliances do not survive this far into a failure cascade.
Our corp came into the RA versus Ethereal Dawn / Intrepid Crossing war about midway through. The feeling / intelligence was that RA was weakening their home systems by taking down towers to use in the assault against Ethereal Dawn's station systems in Etherium Reach region. If so, they were stretching themselves thin to battle against us such that when attacked in their home region of Insmother by Atlas and co, they found themselves defenseless to the onslaught. The subsequent power struggles within RA as reported on various political forums only served to foster unrest and confusion and ultimately has doomed them.
For now. There is a possibility that RA may regroup, reorganize, and retake space. I give them about 1 in 4 odds of doing so, ironically higher than what I personally give KenZoku for doing the same.
In the meantime, the retaking of Etherium Reach systems and the scramble for Insmother is on.