Where Are The Goons?

Way back when I was a null sec pilot I had a little back of the envelope calculation I used to determine if an alliance was performing its PvP duties appropriately. Basically I'd look at the alliance membership count, divide it in two (assuming it was a roughly equal US/Europe membership split), divide it in two again to discount alt characters, and then take 25% of that resulting number with the idea that only about 1 in 4 pilots will be logged in ready to go in a PvP ship on any given night.

So an alliance of about 2000 pilots should easily get a fleet of 100 pilots together in an organized fleet if there is something that needs fighting. If there is no specific threat then 50 pilots is OK, and a CTA should double that into the 200 pilots area.

So my question is: where are the goons?

As of time of posting.

I admit I'm not participating in this war even indirectly but I've watched the news and listened to podcasts and one thing that jumps out at me is that I hear about Co2's 300 man fleet in the battle of UMI and I heard about FCON's 500 man fleet in the defence of their home but I've yet to hear of Goonswarm throwing up fleets of any size that they should be capable of. I'd expect to see fleets of 1000-2000 goons swarming the battlezones at minimum in defence of their empire, but they've seemed to be phoning it in so to speak.

Am I wrong? Are the fleets out there but just operating separately so not seeming as obvious? Or is the alliance bloated with dead bodies?

Goonswarm: Your Freedom Awaits

Barring any dramatic shifts in the current course of the war, the Imperium is fucked. Cluster fucked, one might say.

Image from Crossing Zebras

Null sec wars in the Dominion and now Aegis eras both have a similar feature where if you start to lose battles consistently without any wins, pilots start to abandon ship so to speak, making it harder to win the next battle. Meanwhile on the other side, winning tends to attract more pilots making it easier to win fighters. This double negative-positive feedback loop tends to make the contest of sov warfare end very quickly, and this war is no exception. The Imperium lost, Money Badgers won. And no Boredom Doctrine is going to save them.

While this is bad news for the Imperium coalition and their blinded-by-their-own-success leadership, this is great news for the member alliances who have been starving for real content and challenges for years now. After all, solid stable sovereignty is a millstone around long term viability and enjoy-ability for any alliance. We've seen it happen again and again: long term alliance living safely in one place loses the best FCs and PvP pilots who go looking for adventure and fill the holes with ratters and F1 button pressers (which to be fair, every alliance needs to a point) and when a real challenge comes along, they collapse under the strain of trying to replicate the success that brought them together in the first place. This normal pattern is further compounded by arrogant Imperium leadership who lived in an echo chamber of backslapping and yes-man-ship. 

But Goonswarm, you are about to be freed from this prison of your own making! Let the Imperium burn, let the fat cat ratters and other fair-weathered find new lodgings. Let your hatred of the Money Badgers keep you warm in a new less appointed hearth in low sec as you plot your revenge. Sharpen teeth in fleets roaming free from timers and CTAs, develop new FCs and new doctrines, build new spy networks and relationships.

And when you are ready, when you are truly free from the shackles of past Imperuim arrogance, let war wage again.