Prediction: Project Nova Will Not See the Light of Day

When DUST 514 was cancelled CCP quickly announced it would replace the First Person Shooter with a new shooter called Project Nova:

Project Nova is the code name for CCP's free-to-play PC first-person shooter that's being shown to the press and fans for the first time at Fanfest in Iceland.
Unlike the recently canceled PlayStation 3 title Dust 514, which tied directly into Eve Online via interactions called orbital bombardment where players in one game could influence the battles in another, there are no direct ties between Eve Online and Project Nova outside of being set in the same universe.

The news since that April 2016 article has been thin on the ground out of CCP. This past April we got some more info:

And the fans in attendance or watching the Twitch livestream got just that during the EVE Fanfest 2017 Keynote from boss man Hilmar Veigar, who says they aren’t ready to show more of the game until they really have something to show, but I managed to get a few more hints from having a long chat with Jean-Charles Gaudechon, Managing Director CCP Shanghai.
“WE’RE STILL VERY MUCH COMMITTED”
Gaudechon joined CCP in 2013 and helped with DUST 514 and then Legion (which became Project Nova). There is no official title decided upon yet for what Project Nova will be called when it releases and it likely won’t be decided upon into the game is near done.

Methinks you protest too much.

Look, you've had a year and you can't show anything new? Or at all? That's a problem. That's a sign that you are not that committed because perhaps you realize that breaking into a market as competitive and filled with quality released is a lot harder than releasing a boundary pushing Virtual Reality space dogfight  game in a fledgling industry.

In fact, I suspect the unexpected and welcomed success of EVE Valkyrie has doomed the FPS division to also ran in CCP's leadership's eyes, and more resources and attention will be diverted to that market and that development division at the expense of Project Nova.

And in the end, that is why I'm predicting we will not see Project Nova on a PC near us ever.

Of Alphas and Omegas

I've been pondering the November release (can we call it "EVE Online: Out of Beta At Last"?) and I've listened to some podcasts (seriously, is Asherothi everywhere?!) and I'm ready to weigh in with my opinion on how EVE will change with the new free to play / unlimited trial Alpha clones.

In total, not that much.

While on the surface it seems like a game changer, and I can see how visions of newbros in Tristans and Merlins swelling the population of New Eden can be exciting, but I think everyone forgets that EVE Online is at the end of the day a very niche game, more of a sci-fi simulation actually, and while I expect we'll get some new players riding the free train but overall the major hurdles to expanding EVE's playerbase are still in place: the game is a massively complex simulation and very boring without social interaction and groups.

Now I realize that the New Player Experience is being worked on as part of this parcel by CCP Ghost, but I have trouble envisioning any NPE that can move a player from new to the game to enjoying it in its fullest to the point that significant numbers of Alpha clone players stick around and have an impact in any part of the game outside of high sec. EVE's just not built that way; only the most determined fight through the early part of the learning cliff.

I also realize that some larger groups plan to have programs in place to guide Alpha clone newbros to their organizations to increase their numbers and add to their fleets, but again I think people are vastly overestimating both the usefulness of these pilots with their Tech 1 modules and ships, and how much fun in low sec/null sec/wormholes that these skill limited pilots are going to have. After all, they will have less defensive tank, offensive damage, less speed and maneuverability, all of that on top of less experience in the game. And as they gain experience and learn why the pilot in the novice plex in a Tech 1 Incursus comepletely murders them anyways in a fight (along with two of their buddies), they are going to get frustrated and quit more often than they pay for an Omega clone.

In other words, Alpha clone players will exist, mostly in high sec, but they will not impact the game in a meaningful manner in my humble opinion.

I could be wrong. In fact, I hope I'm wrong and EVE is transformed into a two caste system bustling with players working and fighting together. But I'm setting my expectations low.

What Will The Future Look Like?

Prior to the deployment of Citadels, there were three major types of large structures: Stations, Outposts, and Starbases.

Stations had the most functionality, allowing the possibility of refining, repair, manufacturing, cloning, research (copying/ME/TE/invention), markets, hangers, etc. 

Outposts are like smaller stations with many of the same features (markets, hangers, repair) but come in specialized flavours, for example, one has many more offices than the others while another allows refining.

Starbases (aka Player Owned Starbases) are like stripped down configurable versions of outposts, with no markets or docking but the ability to set up hangers, manufacturing, science labs, etc as can fit. In addition, they are the only platform for moon mining and moon material manufacture, and the only platform for advanced booster construction.

Citadels have added to the environment by providing competition for these existing structures by providing markets, offices, hangers, refining, repair, and cloning services. In the future, industrial arrays will arrive to take over the manufacture and research side of things, while drilling platforms will take over the moon mining activities. 

We have seen how already Citadels have been used not only for markets and homes for corps and alliances, but also as offensive platforms such as the Money Badger Coalition citadels in Saranen as they try to make life hard for the Goons living there. 

I predict we will see a certain synergy between Citadels and industrial structure in the future, both deployed near each other, one providing a home for the group and refining for miners, and the output minerals diverted to the nearby industrial arrays for building war materiel. Moon mining could become less complicated with a lower barrier to entry and in the future we may jump into systems to see a number of citadels, industrial arrays, and moon drilling platforms of a single alliance all working (and defending) together.

How all these pieces will truly fit together depends on a lot of details of course, but I look forward to seeing it happen. 

And of course, what those promised stargates will do.

Providence Will Burn

Providence will burn.

If there is one sure thing to come out of all the Citadel dev blogs, Providence is going to burn.

* * * * *

Providence is a weird null sec region. Its shallow null sec, with not one but two exits to high sec directly and another two connections to low sec. Its true sec is not very good so making ISK from ratting is consequently poor so its never been overly desirable to large coalitions to add to their empires. As a result the CVA alliance / coalition often lives there due to role play reasons and because other coalitions like to have someplace to roam for farming kills. Occasionally CVA gets kicked out but they bide their time in nearby lowsec and slowly work their way back in eventually. No one wants Providence more than old CVA.

But the most peculiar aspect of Providence is the fact that its positively infested with player constructed outposts. Its easier to count systems without an outpost, 8 this morning, than it is to count the rest. That's 8 empty systems out of 84 systems in total. That's right, 76 outposts. There are other similarly heavily constructed regions, but Providence is the only one not claimed by a major null sec coalition.

As a result, the major empires often visit Providence for various reasons with varying degrees of force. Sometimes just a "for fun" deployment to get fights out of CVA and their small allies, other times to drop in on some other's deployment as "honourable third parties", rarely with the goal to remove CVA because they are known to at least try to defend their space and give a fight.

But other times, most notably this past summer, major empires use Providence as a testing ground for new mechanics or doctrines. For example, when Fozzie Sov replaced Dominion Sov mechanics several entities invaded Providence to get a handle on the intricacies of the new mechanics against and opponent that did not present a significant threat in retaliation. CVA is not a threat to invade Deklein ever.

* * * * *

Player Owned Stations, aka Outposts and Player Owned Starbases, aka POSes, were both designed to give players something to own where they could exist and perform certain tasks or store assets. However they are two entirely different mechanics with vastly different rules about owning, destroying, taking, and working in them. You could not have purposely designed two more disparate systems for accomplishing roughly the same goals at different scales.

CCP is smart and rather than trying to marry two vastly different and barely understood legacy code bases into one working system, they are circumventing the issue and creating a new system to obsolete the old ones: Citadels. The new constructs will fulfill the goals of player ownership at both the small corporate or even personal level up to the alliance / coalition level under a single fresh code base. As Citadels come online, the lights in the old POSes and Outposts can go dark.

* * * * *

Or can they?

For POSes, its pretty straight forward. Stop allowing fuel to be made for them after Citadels have been around for a while and you have encouraged players to make the transition to the new constructs. Those players that have left the game and the POSes abandoned in space will slowly go dark as fuel runs out and will be destroyed by attrition over time if their owners did not take them down themselves.

But Outposts cannot be so easily retired. They don't require fuel and cannot be destroyed. How can we convince players to move to new Citadels when old Outposts offer much the same funcitonality but in safer confines?

The only answer is that after Citadels have been introduced and established as working as intended, CCP will add the ability to destroy Outposts and remove the ability to build new ones, thus allowing attrition over time to remove the old structures to be replaced by the new Citadels.

* * * * *

So you are a large coalition and you hear that CCP is going to allow Outposts to be destroyed. Are you going to destroy your own assets in your own space? Nah, not unless Outposts lose a lot of functionality and it becomes an economic necessity to remove them. Invade a neighbour and start a full blown war? Maybe. Or will you descend on Providence, filled with Outposts defended by an enemy that cannot effectively retaliate, a region known for being a test bed of new mechanics? Think of all the juicy tears and killmails to result from going from system to system and reducing the years of hard work to ashes without any repercussions at all...

Providence will burn.

Logical Design Decisions

2014 was a year of vindication for me in that a lot of the opinions I had towards game mechanics and design were similar to directions CCP took with various decisions. For example, ISBoxer input proadcasting, improving the in game map and fitting window, capital ship jump range nerf, ship skinning being expanded, etc. I like to think that CCP game designer and I are at least on the same wavelength in terms where the game is going and should go in the future.

So I'm going to roleplay a little bit and pretend that I've been asked to map out the overarching design for the "new space" that is eventually coming at the end of the roadmap we are all so familiar with.

Hi, its me again!

Axioms

First, let's define some base concepts that any implementation has to meet.

1. Widely Accessible - What I mean by this is that the new space content added to the game can be experienced by young or older players and solo to small groups to large groups. All current regions of space meet these requirements to various degrees or another; w-space has class 1 wormholes for the newbies and class 6 for the larger experienced groups. NPC null sec offers opportunities for small groups while player owned null sec is the domain of larger groups. Etc.

2. Does Not Detract Adversely from Existing Content - The new content added should expand the game but not at the expense of severely damaging or replacing other parts of the game. Some adjustments to economic or player density in the short term is the be expected, but it should not be drastic.

3. Involves Player Built Stargates - Its an iconic act in the current EVE universe that players cannot participate in. Players can build starbases, outposts, ships, modules, empires, jump networks, but not fully functional stargates. One could argue that the jump bridge networks do cover this already, but I would argue that they are cumbersome in that they require an operational POS, sovereignty, system upgrades, fuel, etc... but the new implementation should be more robust and operate similar to normal stargates.

4. Utilizes The Current Game Lore and Moves it Forward - This is less critical than the other points but I think we can all agree that the dynamic lore and increasing mysteries over Caroline's Star, Circadian Sleepers, Unidentified Objects, etc have energized the player base and we should continue to push that direction with any new content.

With those axioms stated, let's see what logical design decisions we can come up with as if we were in charge of EVE Game Design in this regard for this big push over the next year.

Ready? Here we go...

The Ninveah Game Design Plan

The new space will be centered on existing Jove space (three regions) with three other previously unmapped regions added to the cluster. All normal stargates in these 6 regions will be removed or never existed.

These unconnected system will allow wormholes to spawn in them as whatever Jovian tech was dampening wormhole spawning has failed as the Jovian civilization has completely collapsed and become desolate.

We don't want to devalue wormhole space or null sec so within these regions there will be new resources to be harvested collectively referred to Jovian Remnant Tech which will be found in special sites that are scanned down using the usual probes and accessed via the usual code breaking and salvaging mechanics. These sites will be protected by new Sleeper rats in three regions and Sansha incursion rats in the other three (that have come to harvest the remnant Jovian tech themselves). The new space will have true sec levels like null sec and wormhole space so some areas will have a smaller risk-reward equation than others.

It will operate similar to wormhole space in that there is no local, but since it will be within range of known space systems you can light cynos in the Jovian systems... but it will attract a severe NPC response.

The new Jovian Remnant Tech will be used for two purposes: first, it will be required to reverse engineer blueprints for the new stargate components, and second, it will be required in the construction projects of these new stargates.

There will be three sizes of stargates: Large which will allow all sizes of ships, medium which will allow battlecruiser and smaller, and small which will allow destroyer and smaller. Stargates can be built in any non-high sec system regardless of sovereignty but have to be paired with another same sized stargate within range (7.5 AU for large, 5 AU for medium, 2.5 AU for small).

Player Owned Stargates (POSGs) are owned by the corporation and are built up in place in space from several components built in factories from reverse engineered blueprints. Once completed they are merely "anchored" and not "online" until they are actively paired at both ends with a second stargate within range. Once online anyone from that corporation or its parent alliance or with positive standings can utilize the stargate as long as they fit the size restrictions.

Stargates, however, can be hacked by other non-friendly parties to made available for any appropriate sized ship for a period of time.

Once paired and online either end can be voluntarily put offline (which automatically puts the other end offline) and the owning corp can put it back online to the same or different endpoint as long as all other conditions are met. Stargates can be attacked and put into reinforced mode much like POCOs during which time they are offline, and after reinforcement they can be destroyed. Their hitpoints will scale with their size with the medium ones being like IHubs in terms of hitpoints.

Yes, these new stargates can be built to go from one known space system to another as well as the obvious use case of to Jovian space systems. I feel that as long as they are directly attackable, hackable, and destructible it adds to interactions in space instead of detracts. Also note that once online they become visible on the overview from anywhere in the system, and in Jovian space they activate local chat to become immediate like null sec instead of delayed like wormhole space.

In the Jovian space there will be no or few NPC stations, and new outposts will not be able to be built although POSes (or their eventual replacement) can be anchored, as well as stargates can be built here.

* * * * *

How's that for a first pass?

Land Rush

Caroline's Star appears to be in Jove space. In three regions of Jove space, previously inaccessible by players, the stargates have been almost completely removed. The latest mysterious actions by Sleepers, Sansha's Nation, and the strange artifacts appearing in space with apparently degrading cloaks suggests that the Jove are going if not gone and that soon there will be a new land rush.

The smart money is betting on that the much heralded "new space" that players will be building stargates to is the Jove regions that are now probably unoccupied, or at least occupied by Sansha's and/or Sleepers.

I'm not so sure.

Source

Much like the 101 new Shattered Systems are an extension of wormhole space with unique properties, I suspect that players will be able to build stargates to Jove space eventually and start to colonize that area, perhaps with a mix of known space and wormhole space mechanics. No local, but cynos can be lit. Special systems with effects and moon mining. Etc. But like the Shattered systems, there is not enough there to represent a long term expansion to the game as a whole. For example, wormholes expanded the game back in Apocrypha in a large scale that allowed hundreds if not thousands of players to carve a new playstyle. Simply put, 101 Shattered systems will not do that, nor will 2-3 regions of Jove space; it would simply be integrated into the large systems in a relatively short time.

No, I suspect that we are seeing a purposeful and graceful expansion of current space and the Jove systems will play into that plan, but the end goal of the road we started in Rubicon is beyond Jove, beyond wormholes and the Shattered Systems. New space, real and expansive new space, is still coming.

* * * * *

Crystal Ball Prediction Time:

Players will find a way into Jove space, probably via wormholes, possibly with new technology to make jumps or stargates. I suspect the partially cloaked Unidentified Objects we are seeing in space from the Rhea release will play a part in getting us there eventually. In there we will start to find the components and techs we need to make the next jump to the new space which will be much larger than a couple regions. Think wormhole space big at least.

Brace Yourself.

So We've Crossed the Rubicon... Now What?

Part of the big promise of the Rubicon expansion is the beginning of the three year plan it represents.

Looking Ahead

There has been a lot of talk and hints in the various dev blogs and interviews that suggests that something major is coming. The image of the badgers assisting in a stargate construction, hints about new space being accessed, talk about the control of the empires and CONCORD slipping. They are flashes of parts of a grand vision we have not been made privy to yet. Intriguing yet frustrating.

So I'm going to half speculate and half dream and lay out the vision of what I think the end goal is going to be or should be.

Welcome to Polaris

I think Jove space is finally going to be opened up but not with full stargate access like all other null sec regions. Instead it will be accessed through special constructed stargates that are not permanent, but rather destructible and require fuel.

These stargates will be constructed by capsuleers from several mobile deployables that combine together (like Voltron!) and will only allow access to the corporation that built it (or based on standings), but hostile forces can take control of it through hacking. Constructing it will not be overly difficult or expensive for small ships, but larger ship classes will require larger and more powerful gates constructed.

Inside Jove space we will find what we already knew; the Jove are gone, either completely died out or mysteriously vanished, and Sansha has moved his most powerful and obedient forces into the region. The Jovian stations are in disrepair or destroyed, either by the departing / last Jovians or by the marauding Sanshas. What this means for the players entering this space is a slew of extremely tough incursion level rats and complexes / exploration sites, where the rewards are parts and blueprints to new technology in the forms of new modules, deployables, ships, and implants. Hacking, Ghost Sites, and new site mechanics will all feature heavily in this space.

Another feature of this space is that most if not all normal stargates will be dysfunctional so in order to delve deeper into these Jovian region you will need to construct more temporary stargates in Jovian space. The deeper you go, the greater the rewards but the greater the risks (especially if someone else takes over your stargates!).

Local will be in delayed mode in this space like wormholes but there will be a deployable to anchor that will activate the beacons which keep track of pilots in space so that local returns to immediate mode.

Players will be allowed to anchor starbases (the new kind, not POSes which will have been obsoleted) but not claim sovereignty due to CONCORD not having authority in these regions. Due to the dynamic nature of stargate construction (which will require something from known space to build) and destruction, living in the Jovian space will be difficult and fraught with risk of getting trapped inside, but players will find a way to the lucrative rewards for the prepared.

End Day Dream

So that's what my wild guess is. I'm putting the crystal ball away for now.

Crystal Ball Rubicon Edition

Time for another edition of "Kirith Makes Wild Guesses About The Future!", this time based on the curretn information we have about Rubicon and what's on the test server.

1) Rise of the Assault Frigate - The warp speed changes are going to be a big boon to all small ships, that's for sure, and a huge detriment to larger vessels (we'll talk about that more in a sec), but the biggest benefactors are going to be Assault Frigates.They will still move incredibly fast compared to everything else. Look at this chart from the Eve Forums:

Click for full size

Assault frigates will be only 9 seconds behind interceptors over 100 AU and a full 33 seconds landing before cruisers. They are relatively cheap, have impressive firepower and resilience, can support large enough buffers and resistances to work with frigate sized logistics, and now sport incredible maneuverability. Its easy to see how a fleet with a core of Assault Frigs, a few interceptors for tackle, and a wing of tech I logistics could cover a lot of ground and take on a lot of targets. Expect to see them more often.

2) Decline of the Battlecruiser - The flip side to this change is how much slower the battecruisers and battleships are going to be. For the latter, its not a huge deal as battleships have a very specific role already (i.e. damage application and absorption) and being a bit slower on the warp is not going to hamper that role much, but for the former this is a big deal. No more will lone sniping Tornadoes or the occasional Talos roamer get away with camping gates and patrolling null sec so easily. A kitchen sink defense fleet with a few frigs in it can cut off escape routes and check planets faster than the Talos can get to top speed in warp, or an inty will be on a Tornado pilot before he spam deep scan twice. Think about that for a second: Interceptors will warp from 20 AU away and land in 12 seconds! You you're distracted for just ten seconds between when you can hit deep scan and when you do, you had better be aligned and going speed to enter warp.

3) Sisters of EVE ships will be Popular - But not as popular as you think, at least not the Astero. While its a nice frigate, and a good prober, it will probably be in the 50-60 million ISK range like most pirate frigates and thus more expensive than a Covert Ops frigate which probes better at skill level IV. Sure, the Astero has more combat capability to go along with that Covert Ops cloak and good exploration ability, but serious probing will still be the domain of the Covert Ops ship.

The Stratios, on the other hand, is interesting in that it is a cruiser that gets a probing bonus that no other non-frigate ship has (EDIT: Forgot about the Gnosis which also has a probing bonus). Combine that with decent combat DPS, flexibility from large drone bay and slot layout, and hacking bonus and you have a new class of ship for a new role of Science / Exploration vessel. Still, its going to be expensive, probably in the 120 million ISK range, so it won't see a lot of action in regular combat. And it still has less virus strength and probing strength than Covert Ops so it will not dethrone that class as the perfect hacking ship. I figure it will be seen but not common outside of high sec and wormhole space (because, say it with me, wormholers are weird).

4) Deployable Structures Will Be Everywhere - As I said last week, a lot depends on the implementation for these things. But assuming a good outcome on the details then I make the following prediction: these things will be everywhere simply because they are new and people WANT to put things in space. The supply depots will see the most use followed by the tractor tower for missions in high sec and PvE plexes everywhere. But the cyno jammer will see some use all over space where cynos are allowed and the siphon will infest moons all over too. I look forward to the inventive ways players put these last two to use. Hell, all four of them. Note: on the first day of Rubicon, change your overview settings to show them as they will most likely be unchecked :P

5) Marauder Use Will Increase, But Not Noticeably - Despite being a fan of the idea of mini-dreadnoughts, the expense will still put them out of reach for common usage, and most large organizations will simply jump from Attack Battlecruisers to dreadnoughts for structure bashes, jumping right over Marauders. They will see some increase in use, for example in missions where increased range and damage could be useful in some situations. But in PvP where battles are too fluid and Micro Jump Drives are too slow to be useful (although I am intrigued by the 70% reduction in Micro Jump Drive reactivation delay... being able to jump after 2.5 seconds instead of 9 sounds like a good deal  EDIT: I apparently am confusing activation delay with reactivation delay.). In the end, though, the expense is what puts this ship on the shelf more often than not.

That's all for this round.

An Economy On the Rocks

So let's talk about ice. Specifically, ice in Odyssey.

At Fanfest CCP Fozzie released a dev blog describing what the plans are for resource balancing in the brave new expansion, and the part about ice mining has this to say:

Next we turn our attention to mining of a cooler kind. Ice mining provides the materials used to fuel New Eden’s thousands of Starbases, and the movements of massive capital fleets across the stars. These materials play a crucial role in EVE’s economy, but the mechanics around ice harvesting have not created a dynamic or interesting feature until now. New Eden currently enjoys a massive oversupply of ice, which stifles competition and emergent gameplay with the notable exception of a few specific organized ice interdictions performed by some very ambitious players. At current levels of ice product usage, all of the ice needed for the entire game could be provided by only four ice belts (one of each ice type). We at CCP want ice harvesting to be a lucrative activity that encourages players to relocate and compete for a piece of the pie. However we also must be careful not to cause the price of isotopes to rise beyond the means of most Starbase operators. We put a lot of thought into how we would walk this tightrope, and we believe we have found a strong solution.

 To summarize the changes:
- ice belts being removed, replaced by ice anomalies in the same system (with some exceptions)
- reducing the cycle time of all ice harvesters by 50%

The goal is apparently this:

The amount of ice found in these sites will be tuned to ensure that most, but not all, of the ice needs of the New Eden cluster can be provided by high security belts. At our current numbers, the maximum supply of ice from highsec (assuming that each belt is mined out completely five times a day) would provide approximately 80% of the game's ice needs, ensuring that at least some of the ice mining must be undertaken in lower security space. For context, this means that highsec will still be a large exporter of ice products, being able to generate eight times the volume of isotopes used by highsec control towers.

Does current ice production from high sec meet all of the cluster's ice needs? I think it must since they are trying to adjust it to make it necessary to ice mine in null sec and low sec. Certainly ice rocks in static belts that have infinite ice would suggest its capable of doing so, and in that case we can talk about the effects of this change.

Prediction #1 - Supply of Ice will go Down

Even if low sec and null sec mining ops start happening to cover the shortfall of current needs, it will probably not be enough as AFK ice mining is pretty much been nerfed into the ground. Humans will need to be involved more often so ice mining pilots will be active less often and thus unable to generate as much ice per pilot over a day than before.

Prediction #2 - Ice Product Prices will Rise

As supply drops, prices will rise, probably with a spike right around Odyssey's deployment and then stabilizing at a higher average price overall in the long term.

Prediction #3 - Demand will Drop

While demand for Liquid Ozone will remain pretty much static due to its price inelasticity (i.e. jump freighters and capitals will continue to operate much the same as before despite price increases due to the insignificant cost of using the fuel compared to operating the vessel overall), a lot of POS owners may find that the profit margins of their operations may evaporate under the increased fuel prices (since the cost of running a POS is super-significant to its operation!). More than a few POSes all over New Eden will probably be torn down, especially in high sec.

Prediction #4 - Demand will Level Off with High Sec Providing 95% of the Ice

I think we'll see POS operations and ice prices dictate event such that high sec ends up providing most if not all of the ice the cluster needs, with some operations in null sec where alliances can control access and security, but no operations in low sec.

Prediction #5 - Ice Mining will have fewer Pilots

But those pilots will make more ISK per hour since the cycle times are increased and prices are higher.

Battleship Rebalancing Is Here

So CCP Rise (nee: Kil2) posed on the Eve online forums the first proposed pass of the Battleship rebalancing coming this summer. 

Gallente
Caldari
Amarr
Minmatar

Keep an eye on those threads because they are changing from feedback already. Just two days in and the Hyperion got an update to its update (and looks very scary if I do say so myself).

Lots of other bloggers are going to tear down the stats and changes and tell you the winner and losers (like Orakkus for example) but I'm going to look at the overall meta and what the devs are trying to do.

Rolercize!

The reason we had tiers before was primarily to give a sense of progression. You'd start at the first frigate (e.g. Bantam), progress upwards to the next tier with more slots/stats/ability at a higher price point. Then start over at tier 1 cruisers, and later tier 1 battleships. But the main problem with this is that the highest tier ships typically overpowered the lower tier ships especially in PvP and thus forced players to a few ship types while the majority languished.

That is why tiericide was begun starting at tech 1 frigates and continued in tech 1 cruisers: make them equal in power but with differing roles. The results have been nothing short of astounding as all sorts of ships that were rarely used have seen a resurgence.

Battleships will be trickier though as despite having tiers they also had a lot of built in roles associated to them. For example, in the Caldari lineup the Rokh was the sniper ship, the Raven was the short range PvE ship, and the Scorpion the EWAR platform. In Gallente the Dominix was the cheap drone master, the Megathron the blaster master, and the Hyperion... well, it saw a lot of station undock games. I never said it was a perfect system. The point is that almost all 12 battleships saw some use somewhere, albeit some more than others. And every ship has its fans for its current model.

So CCP is trying to create even more distinctive roles for the ships and in the process fix some of the ships that were more underused than others (like the Hyperion, the poster child for unloved battleships). To do so and follow the modus operandi they used in frigates, crusiers and battlecruisers means that one Minmatar ship and one Amarr ship had to be basically gutted and redone.

Why is that?

Well, CPP decided to really emphasize that each empire faction has two combat philosophies. For Caldari its Missiles and Hybrids. For Gallente its Hybrids and Drones. For Minmatar its Projectiles and Missiles/Drones and for Amarr its becoming Lasers and Drones/Missiles. This is why the Prophecy and Cyclone battlecruisers got revamped into missile spewing drone boats.

So when they looked at battleships and their overall plan and decided to go with two combat battleships and one attack battleships for each faction (excepting Caldari who get one attack (Raven), one combat (Rokh), and one Disruption so the ECM Scorpion can live on). The attack models are meant to be faster and more agile with less tanking while the combat versions are bigger slower fighters that are differentiated by using different main weapon systems.

For Gallente these conditions was easily done: Hybrids on the Hyperion, Drones on the Dominix, and a faster Megathron.

For Minmatar, this required converting the Typhoon to look more like a Cyclone: Missiles and drones as a combat model, Maelstrom as the projectile combat ship, and the Tempest as the attack ship.

For Caldari, Rokh is the combat ship, Raven the attack ship, and the Scorpion gets to be the only disruption battleships (for now).

But for Amarr, its a hard choice. All three were laser ships that saw use and were loved in some niche or another (I personally am a huge fan of the Abaddon). But one of them had to convert to follow the line of the missiles and drones. And CCP Rise et al chose the Armageddon to sacrifice on the altar of tiericide. It and the Abaddon will be the combat versions while the Apocalypse will be attack vessel.

As mentioned, I suspect that CCP plans to add four more battleships in the future to give the other three factions disruption battleships and Caldari a true Missile combat battlecruiser.

Of course, this is all very, very wrong.

Wrong?!

Yes, wrong.

To be precise, I think the changes to the Armageddon and Typhoon are ok, and I have no issues with bringing the old tier ones up to speed with the tier threes, or even revamping underused ships to be more palatable.

But in Eve's meta, what good is an Attack battleship going to be, when Attack battlecruisers can cover the same ground with more speed and mobility and same calibre weapons? How fast and nimble can a battleship be?  Worse, if you change them and make them too fast they will obsolete the battlecruisers in the process.

Without built in bonuses to the new Micro Jump Drive (or something else), these ships will find themselves caught between faster and cheaper battlecruisers and tougher combat battleships.

Am I wrong? Comment below.

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For the record, this is what I speculated back in January:

What we can say for certain
The number of slots on each hull will standardize, most likely on 19. There will be at least one Combat vessel, probably two: one for each of the factions' main weapon types (and people who think missiles are Amarr's second weapon type are deluded; its drones and the tech 2 Khanid ships are an anomaly, get over it). The power grid, CPU, and hitpoint values will be standardized.
What we can guess with some confidence
Now we get to the meat of the post.
The Armageddon is going to lose turrets and the laser bonuses and gain drone space and a tank bonus to complete the Amarr drone line (Tormentor, Dragoon, Arbitrator, Prophecy).
The Typhoon is going to get the Cyclone treatment and go pure missile with two missile bonuses and a sixth missile hardpoint. I'm willing to bet the Raven gets a seventh missile hardpoint as well (to follow the Drake/Cyclone dynamic).
The Rokh will keep the optimal range bonus, the Hyperion the active armour tanking bonus.
Each faction will have two Combat battleships, but the third will be more of an Attack variant with better speed and maneuverability. Caldari is the exception in that their third will remain Disruption.
What we can wildly speculate on
I had proposed in my August post that each of the factions would have one of the three battleships be a disruption vessel, much like how the Caldari have the Scorpion. After much discussion and thought I am not confident that the developers have the intestinal fortitude to radically overhaul an Amarrian, Gallentean, and Minmatar batteship that currently has a lot of fans. Its easy to change ships that hardly anyone uses, much harder to choose to alienate some players for the good of all.
Instead I'm going to speculate that CCP is considering adding a fourth battleship to the mix so that each faction has two Combat, one Attack, and one Disruption variant. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Amarrian one will use neutralizers and nosferatu as its disruption type similar to the Dragoon destroyer, while the Gallentean version will stick with tried and true Remote Sensor Dampeners. The Minmatar one is harder; will it be a missile and target painter like the Bellicose (giving Minmatar two missile battleships) or will it go with projectiles and a webber bonus?

Crystal Ball: Tiericide and Battleships

Back in August I tried to extrapolate the tiericide changes that had been done to frigates and destroyers and were being proposed for cruisers into what that meant for battlecruisers and battleships:

Battlecruisers
Overall the three battlecruisers of each race are pretty well balanced, with each one bringing something different to the table for each faction. The Cyclone is the active tanker compared to the Hurricane ganker; the Brutix is a blaster boat to the Myrmidon drones; Ferox hybrids to Drake missiles. For the Amarr, the Prophecy and Harbinger both are laser ships so there might be some bonus changes there along with some module and fitting changes that I expect all of the tier 1 battlecruisers to receive. The tier 3 battlecruiser being very new already have a very defined role and balance so I don't think we'll see any changes to them. 

Battleships
Ah, here we get to the class that could potentially experience the most overhaul. For one thing, there is a huge step in capabilities (modules, fitting stats, damage potential, tanking potential, and price) between tier 1 and tier 2 and then again to tier 3 battleships. Also, there is a lot of role overlap. Take for example the Amarr where all three battleships are laser combat ships. To be fair, for battleships the issues are primarily tank versus damage versus range but with true sniping battleship fleets a rarity these days, and many ships able to take on the sniping role with a few tracking computers/enhancers, we may want to explore vastly different roles and designs for the ships.

I went on to spitball about how battleships could be revamped but we've had more data points on the graph since then so I figured it was time to revise my predictions (and try to leave my wishful thinking out of it).

What do we know?

One thing we know is that CCP Fozzie and co like ships in the same hull class to have the same number of slots. For cruisers it is 14, battlecruisers have 17. Right now battleships vary between 18 and 19.

There are currently three tiers for battleships with progressing increases for CPU, powergrid and hitpoints for each higher tier. In battlecruisers we saw the tier 1 ships upgraded and the tier 2 ships downgraded to meet at the middle (much to the dismay of many Drake and Hurricane and Harbinger pilots).

At frigate level, each factions has two Combat vessels and one of each Logistic, Attack, Disruption, and Exploration. For Cruisers, they have one of each of Combat, Attack, Logistic, and Disruption. Battlecruiser is shaping up to be two Combat hulls and one Attack hull.

What we can say for certain

The number of slots on each hull will standardize, most likely on 19. There will be at least one Combat vessel, probably two: one for each of the factions' main weapon types (and people who think missiles are Amarr's second weapon type are deluded; its drones and the tech 2 Khanid ships are an anomaly, get over it). The power grid, CPU, and hitpoint values will be standardized.

What we can guess with some confidence

Now we get to the meat of the post.

The Armageddon is going to lose turrets and the laser bonuses and gain drone space and a tank bonus to complete the Amarr drone line (Tormentor, Dragoon, Arbitrator, Prophecy).

The Typhoon is going to get the Cyclone treatment and go pure missile with two missile bonuses and a sixth missile hardpoint. I'm willing to bet the Raven gets a seventh missile hardpoint as well (to follow the Drake/Cyclone dynamic).

The Rokh will keep the optimal range bonus, the Hyperion the active armour tanking bonus.

Each faction will have two Combat battleships, but the third will be more of an Attack variant with better speed and maneuverability. Caldari is the exception in that their third will remain Disruption.

What we can wildly speculate on

I had proposed in my August post that each of the factions would have one of the three battleships be a disruption vessel, much like how the Caldari have the Scorpion. After much discussion and thought I am not confident that the developers have the intestinal fortitude to radically overhaul an Amarrian, Gallentean, and Minmatar batteship that currently has a lot of fans. Its easy to change ships that hardly anyone uses, much harder to choose to alienate some players for the good of all.

Instead I'm going to speculate that CCP is considering adding a fourth battleship to the mix so that each faction has two Combat, one Attack, and one Disruption variant. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Amarrian one will use neutralizers and nosferatu as its disruption type similar to the Dragoon destroyer, while the Gallentean version will stick with tried and true Remote Sensor Dampeners. The Minmatar one is harder; will it be a missile and target painter like the Bellicose (giving Minmatar two missile battleships) or will it go with projectiles and a webber bonus?

* * * * *

Crystal Ball is all worn out now. Time will tell if I'm close to target or wildly off. Stay Tuned.